Trump's advisor defends dismissal of statistics' head honcho
The U.S. job market showed signs of weakness at the start of the summer, prompting former President Donald Trump to allege that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had manipulated the job numbers for political purposes. Trump accused the head of the BLS, Erika McEntarfer, of fabricating data to help the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
However, these allegations have been thoroughly debunked by fact-checkers, experts, and former BLS officials. The key points are:
- Claims and Allegations: Trump pointed to a major downward revision of 818,000 fewer jobs in March 2024 discovered during the August 2024 benchmark revision process, interpreting it as fraudulent padding of numbers under the Biden-Harris administration.
- Nature of Revisions: The BLS routinely revises employment data through an annual benchmarking process matching employer survey data with more comprehensive state unemployment insurance records. This is a standard, transparent statistical practice to improve data accuracy, not manipulation.
- Response from Former Head William Beach: Beach, McEntarfer’s predecessor, explicitly stated that rigging numbers is “not possible, and it’s not possible by design.” He reaffirmed the integrity of the BLS data collection and revision process.
- Response from BLS and Experts: McEntarfer was Senate-confirmed by a large bipartisan vote and had a career with nonpartisan roles in economic statistics. Former BLS Commissioner Kathy Utgoff explained that commissioners cannot alter underlying data or reports: the numbers come directly from computer-processed data and staff deliver the press release to the commissioner 36 hours prior to release. The commissioner can only influence wording, aiming for neutrality and clarity.
- Fact-Checks: Reliable fact-checking organizations have repeatedly found no evidence for Trump’s claims. The timeline and procedural details cited by Trump contain inaccuracies, and there is no indication of political motivation or data manipulation in BLS reports.
Beach, who appointed McEntarfer by Trump, called her firing "completely unfounded." Previously, he described the accusations as "completely unfounded." When asked for concrete evidence, Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, replied that the revisions themselves are concrete evidence.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote that Trump's actions are another step towards authoritarianism. This revision in job numbers, considered significant as such corrections are usually smaller, has led to a total of 258,000 fewer jobs for the months of May and June.
Despite these allegations, the BLS maintains rigorous, standardized, and apolitical procedures to ensure accuracy, supported by statements from former BLS leadership including William Beach and expert commissioners.
- The alleged manipulation of job numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for political purposes, as claimed by former President Donald Trump, has been refuted by fact-checkers, experts, and former BLS officials.
- Amidst Trump's accusations, the BLS, under the leadership of Senate-confirmed head Erika McEntarfer, maintains a rigorous, standardized, and apolitical approach to data collection and revision, as stated by former BLS Commissioner Kathy Utgoff and McEntarfer's predecessor, William Beach.
