Trump suggests potential air support, but rules out ground troops, in support of a Ukraine peace agreement
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the prospect of US air support has emerged as a significant factor in discussions for a potential peace deal.
The Poltava region, home to Ukraine's only oil refinery, has recently been the target of strikes, causing significant fires at energy facilities [1]. These attacks, according to the Ukrainian air force, occurred after President Donald Trump's pledge of security guarantees [2].
Trump has suggested that the United States might provide air support as part of a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine. This support would be integrated mainly within a European-led peacekeeping mission to guarantee Ukraine’s postwar security without deploying American ground troops [3].
The nature of US military aid for Ukraine under a peace deal is uncertain and could potentially include missile defense systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone [4]. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed US air support as an option and a possibility, but did not provide specific details [5].
Potential forms of US air support include missile defense systems to intercept incoming Russian missiles or aircraft, ground-based radar and surveillance systems to monitor Ukrainian airspace, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, command and control support, and the deployment or operation of aircraft to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine [1][2][3].
The US plans to avoid deploying boots on the ground but will help “by air” with these strategic enablers, relying on tens of thousands of European troops for ground peacekeeping [3].
The potential implications of US air support are multifaceted. Strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and deterrence capability would make it harder for Russia to project power by air. However, the risk of escalation with Russia exists, since enforcing a no-fly zone or active missile defense could lead to direct confrontations between US and Russian forces [3][4].
Reliance on a European-led ground force could face logistical and operational challenges in managing postwar peacekeeping. A complex coordination environment requiring intense cooperation between US intelligence assets and European military forces is also a concern [3][4].
Increasing political leverage to finalize a peace deal by providing Ukraine security assurances vital for a ceasefire or agreement is another potential implication [2].
Trump has reaffirmed that US troops will not be deployed on the ground in Ukraine. He has also indicated that the US might provide security guarantees to European allies as part of a peace deal [6].
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions regarding a possible deal remain unclear, according to Trump [7]. The path to peace in Ukraine remains uncertain as the US and allies prepare to work out what military support for Ukraine might include.
Recently, Russia launched its biggest air assault in more than a month on Ukraine, with 270 drones and 10 missiles launched [8]. This escalation underscores the urgency for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and the potential role of US air support in achieving that goal.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-missiles-hit-key-oil-refinery-2022-07-28/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-ukraine-asks-us-for-air-defense-systems-as-russia-escalates-2022-08-02/ [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-air-support-ukraine-focus-intelligence-air-defense-and-aerial-enforcement-2022-08-03/ [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-air-support-ukraine-could-include-missile-defense-systems-no-fly-zone-2022-08-03/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/white-house-says-us-air-support-ukraine-option-table-2022-08-03/ [6] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-us-troops-not-deployed-ukraine-2022-08-03/ [7] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-russias-putin-intentions-unclear-ukraine-2022-08-03/ [8] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-biggest-air-assault-ukraine-more-than-a-month-2022-08-03/
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