Trump-Putin Summit: Potential Opportunity for Ukraine?
The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to produce a definitive ceasefire or agreement on Ukraine’s territorial disputes. This is according to recent discussions, as their summit in Alaska ended without a deal.
Ukraine has maintained a firm stance against territorial concessions, especially concerning the roughly 20% of its territory currently occupied by Russia. A best-case scenario, as discussed by experts, would include a ceasefire possibly allowing minor land swaps, but no recognition of Russian sovereignty over the occupied territory.
However, there is a real risk that Trump might accept a flawed deal that Ukraine and NATO reject. Putin’s maximalist demands reportedly still include regime change in Kyiv and demilitarization of Ukraine, which Ukraine strongly opposes. If Trump pushes such a deal unilaterally, it could lead to Ukraine rejecting the terms and a breakdown in US-Ukraine and transatlantic relations, potentially allowing Russia to solidify its control over parts of Ukraine.
Wolfgang Ischinger, the President of the Munich Security Conference’s Board of Trustees, has expressed a desire for American-Russian contacts. In a podcast conversation with our Aktuell moderator Stefan Eich, Ischinger voiced a pessimistic outlook regarding the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin. He wishes for a different approach to the meeting, as per his interview with our website Aktuell.
Ischinger also noted that Trump has shown a policy of strength in many other areas but considers the sanctions package as not a policy from a position of strength. He referred to a sanctions package that is being prepared but not yet decided. Discussions about ceding Ukrainian territories in the east to Russia are taking place, primarily in Moscow and Washington.
In sum, while some diplomatic framework might be proposed, Ukraine’s firm rejection of any territorial concessions and concerns from NATO allies make a successful agreement unlikely. The recent Alaska talks reinforced this deadlock. The meeting between Trump and Putin may have implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but a resolution seems far from reach.
- Despite Wolfgang Ischinger's desire for American-Russian contacts, there's a possibility that the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin might result in a controversial deal over territorial disputes in Ukraine, which could be firmly rejected by Ukraine and potentially lead to a breakdown in US-Ukraine and transatlantic relations.
- In the midst of war-and-conflicts, politics, and general-news surrounding Ukraine's territorial disputes, discussions about ceding Ukrainian territories in the east to Russia are ongoing, primarily in Moscow and Washington, but Ukraine has maintained a firm stance against territorial concessions.
