Trump, Putin, and Zelensky conjoin in Alaska, potential for reshaping Ukraine's peace process on the horizon
The upcoming meeting between President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, scheduled for August 15 in Alaska, promises to be a significant event in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This potential trilateral gathering could have far-reaching implications, potentially advancing peace talks or exacerbating tensions.
The success of the meeting will depend not just on what is said in front of cameras, but on the substance of agreements reached and the political will to enforce them. The effectiveness of the meeting will depend on the agenda's scope and the mechanisms established to enforce agreements.
For Kyiv, a Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting might be an opportunity to secure assurances of ongoing support, both military and economic. However, critics fear that such a meeting could legitimize Russian territorial gains in Ukraine. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have emphasized that the meeting must be presented as a Ukraine-led process to avoid this outcome.
Russian leverage attempts are expected before the talks, possibly pressuring for pre-summit concessions on sanctions or NATO deployments. Putin is expected to continue military pressure, such as drone attacks, while portraying Russia as seeking peace with security guarantees. His strategy aims to isolate Ukraine internationally by appealing directly to Washington and leveraging economic offers.
Analysts warn Putin will demand significant territorial concessions, anticipating Ukraine will refuse, attempting to cast Ukraine as the obstacle to peace in Trump’s eyes. This echoes previous negotiations where aid to Ukraine was conditioned on peace talks with Russia.
However, supporters of the meeting argue that prolonged conflicts without direct dialogue tend to harden into stalemates. The meeting could focus on urgent humanitarian measures such as expanded prisoner exchanges and establishing secure corridors for civilians trapped in contested zones.
U.S. diplomats see merit in starting confidence-building measures, but a full peace settlement in Alaska is unlikely. The meeting, if confirmed, would transform a bilateral encounter into a trilateral gathering, offering a platform for Putin to test Western resolve while projecting Russian influence.
The ripple effects of the meeting could extend far beyond Eastern Europe, potentially impacting U.S.-China relations, especially regarding Taiwan. The potential meeting comes amid a war that has entered its 30th month, causing immense humanitarian suffering and destabilizing the European security order.
Over 10.3 million people have been displaced due to the conflict as of July 31, 2025. Ukraine's GDP has shrunk by nearly 29 percent since early 2022, a decline unmatched in modern European history outside wartime. The choice of Alaska offers logistical advantages due to its proximity to Russia and the host's ability to control security and media access.
In summary, a Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting in Alaska could either advance peace talks by directly involving all parties or exacerbate tensions if Ukraine is pressured into unwanted concessions or excluded. The outcome hinges on whether Ukraine participates meaningfully and how Russia balances military coercion with diplomatic offers. European leaders stress Ukraine's inclusion in all talks to avoid decisions being made without Kyiv's input. Military aid deliveries to Ukraine have declined by 18 percent in 2025 compared to the previous year.
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