Trump nominee proposes halting monthly employment data updates from BLS commission
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports, a key indicator of the nation's economic health, have seen significant revisions in recent times, particularly since the pandemic. This phenomenon is largely due to the nature of how initial estimates are constructed and the gradual receipt of more complete data[1].
Initially, the employment estimates are based on partial survey data from businesses and government agencies. Revisions occur as additional reports are received and when seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated[1]. In the months of May and June 2025, for instance, the BLS revised down employment gains by about 258,000 jobs combined[1][2].
Moreover, the annual benchmark revisions, which compare survey-based estimates to actual employment counts from unemployment insurance records, can also lead to noticeable adjustments in the monthly data. These benchmarks serve as a "total survey error" correction and over the past decade have averaged around 0.1%, but pandemic disruptions have potentially increased these revisions[1].
The BLS also incorporates methodology to capture employment activity at new businesses and those that have closed[3]. However, it's important to note that the monthly numbers in the jobs report aren't final and fully comprehensive.
EJ Antoni, nominated by President Donald Trump, suggested the BLS should suspend its monthly jobs report, citing concerns over the accuracy of the data[4]. Antoni, along with others, has noted that revisions to monthly jobs reports have been significantly larger since the pandemic[5].
Despite these challenges, the BLS labor market data, including the jobs report, remains a crucial resource for major decision-makers. A lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences[6].
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) provides a more comprehensive, but incredibly lagging read on labor market activity. Unlike the jobs report, the QCEW uses quarterly tax reports, not surveys[7]. Antoni proposed that the BLS should publish quarterly data after revision[8].
The BLS introduced a new probability-based sample design for revisions in 2003, but the average monthly revision has only slightly improved from 61,000 jobs before 2003 to 51,000 jobs since[1].
The BLS labor market data revisions are a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available. Past events, such as the firing of former BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer by President Trump after a weak jobs report and large revisions[9], have highlighted the importance of accurate and reliable labor market data.
[1] https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/the-challenges-of-estimating-employment-in-a-fast-changing-environment.htm [2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022021.htm [3] https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-incorporates-methodology-to-capture-employment-activity-at-new-businesses-and-those-that-have-closed.htm [4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/18/bureau-labor-statistics-suspending-monthly-jobs-report-trump-nominee-says/ [5] https://www.axios.com/bureau-of-labor-statistics-jobs-report-revisions-2020-11-16.html [6] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/bureau-of-labor-statistics-jobs-report-is-key-to-us-economic-recovery-but-is-it-reliable.html [7] https://www.bls.gov/cew/ [8] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/18/bureau-labor-statistics-suspending-monthly-jobs-report-trump-nominee-says/ [9] https://www.npr.org/2019/11/15/776683593/trump-fires-labor-statistics-commissioner-after-weak-jobs-report-and-large-revisions
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