Trump nominee for the BLS commission positions advocates for temporary halt of the monthly employment report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been tracking monthly job revisions since 1979, and a recent change in the methodology used in 2003 has significantly impacted the revisions.
Before 2003, the BLS employed a quota sample design, which was weighted towards large firms. This approach led to an average monthly revision of approximately 61,000 jobs. However, since the introduction of a probability-based sample design in 2003, the average monthly revisions have reduced, reflecting improved accuracy and reduced bias.
The change to the probability-based design addressed key issues with the previous quota sample, providing a more representative and statistically sound sample of establishments. This improvement has resulted in more stable and reliable employment estimates month-to-month.
In the July report, issued by the BLS, there were historically large revisions for May and June. The total revisions for May and June jobs totals are 120,000 and 133,000 jobs respectively. Specifically, the BLS revised June's jobs total down to 14,000, a decrease from the initial estimate of 147,000. Similarly, May's jobs total was revised down to 19,000, a decrease from the initial estimate of 139,000.
EJ Antoni, nominated by President Donald Trump to become the next commissioner for the BLS, has expressed concern about these revisions and their potential impact on confidence in the data. Antoni proposes that the BLS should publish quarterly data after it has been revised until the monthly jobs data is more accurate. In addition, Antoni suggests that the BLS should suspend its monthly jobs report until it is corrected.
Antoni believes that major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on the monthly jobs numbers. He emphasizes that a lack of confidence in the data could have far-reaching consequences. However, it is important to note that these historically large revisions are not unprecedented.
This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available.
References:
[1] "BLS Changes CES Sampling Frame to Incorporate Probability Sampling" - BLS.gov [2] "The Effect of the New CES Sample Design on Estimates of Employment and Unemployment" - Monthly Labor Review [3] "The Impact of the New CES Sample Design on Industry Estimates" - Monthly Labor Review
Read also:
- Court petitions to reverse established decision on same-sex marriage legalization
- Commemoration of 200 Days of American Resurgence Unveiled
- Minister Bärbel Bas expresses doubts about her tenure as a minister following a recent interview during the summer.
- Politicians from both Republican and Democratic parties are urging President Trump to maintain the security agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom.
