Taking a Glimpse at the Ukrainian-Russian Scenario: Shift in Diplomatic Roles?
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- Trump is reducing the role of a special representative.
The reign of President Donald Trump has brought about a shift in diplomatic roles, particularly in relation to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Despite formidable media speculation suggesting a conciliation to Moscow, both Trump and his envoy for Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, have denied any demotion.
Trump shared on his Truth Social network, "I am thrilled to reveal that General Keith Kellogg has been delegated Special Envoy for Ukraine." However, he omits mentioning the transfer of Ukraine peace negotiations duties to Kellogg, a move he undertook in November.
Kremlin has reportedly exerted pressure on Kellogg due to his alleged pro-Ukrainian stance, as per US broadcaster NBC and other media outlets. In response, neither Kellogg nor Trump has addressed the reduction in Kellogg's portfolio. Kellogg expressed gratitude via the X network for Trump's trust, emphasizing his goal to end the conflict.
Trump's contacts with Moscow were previously mediated through his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in touch with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov over the weekend, discussing subsequent steps following recent meetings in Saudi Arabia. Both agreed to carry on with efforts towards improved communicative channels between Moscow and Washington.
While Kellogg will negotiate directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian leadership, Trump's previous negotiations with Russia were led by Witkoff. Kellogg had treated the Ukrainians more favorably compared to Trump himself or his vice president, J.D. Vance.
In the past, Kellogg, as Chief of Staff on the National Security Council during Trump's first term, referred to the Ukrainians as stubborn and in need of a firm wake-up call, likening them to a mule needing a 2x4 to the nose.
Trump has always boasted of his friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Recently, Trump seems to be bolstering this rapport, adopting Moscow's perspective on the clashes in Kursk. Trump described the fighting in the Russian region, basing his claims on Putin's assertions, even offering to intervene on behalf of thousands of seemingly surrounded Ukrainian soldiers.
However, both the Ukrainian army and Russian military bloggers have stressed that there are no Ukrainian forces encircled. Kremlin's agreement to Trump's request hinges on Ukraine ordering its soldiers to lay down their arms.
In contrast, Zelensky has rejected Putin's claims of Ukraine encirclement, highlighting the possibility of a Russian attempt to encircle Ukrainian units in the region of Sumy. Reports suggest Russian troops may be advancing into this northern Ukrainian region.
Ukraine appoints envoys for potential peace talks
Amidst the diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, Zelensky has established a negotiating team, led by influential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. The delegation includes Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, Defense Minister Rustem Umierov, and Yermak's deputy, Pavel Palytsia.
These four envoys engaged in talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia last week, resulting in the resumption of U.S. arms deliveries. Ukraine agreed to a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent upon Moscow's agreement. Russia opposes an unconditional ceasefire and only recognizes the U.S. as an interlocutor, not the Ukrainian leadership or European states.
The Ukrainian army, as per Zelensky, has successfully deployed the advanced Neptune anti-ship missile. "It's a new Ukrainian missile, a precise strike. The range is one thousand kilometers," the president stated on Telegram. Reports suggest that this strike may have targeted the Russian refinery in Tuapse on the Black Sea.
Eastern Ukraine resumed air raid sirens on Sunday, in the face of swarms of Russian combat drones. A drone is believed to have set a five-story apartment building in the city of Chernihiv on fire, causing no reported casualties thus far.
- The European Union, being part of the global effort against terrorism, may express concerns over the use of chemical weapons in the Ukrainian-Russian scenario, given the ongoing crisis.
- Despite Trump's delegation of General Keith Kellogg as Special Envoy for Ukraine, there might be indications of a resumed dialogue with Moscow, as agreed upon by both U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
- Vladimir Putin, Russian President, could potentially view General Keith Kellogg's envoy role as a shift towards a more pro-Ukrainian stance, given his alleged past remarks about the Ukrainians, which were not favorable.
