Military base summit in Alaska potentially not attended by Trump as he deliberates over participation

Trump is en route to a summit at Alaska's significant military installation.

In a highly anticipated meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will gather in Alaska to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The summit, scheduled to begin on Friday at 21:30 CET, will take place at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage.

The primary focus of the summit, as reported, is to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the specific agenda items are not extensively detailed in publicly available reports, the meeting is expected to discuss potential frameworks for a ceasefire, which could involve minor land swaps and the recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty over certain territories.

The outcome of the summit is crucial, given the ongoing tensions in Ukraine and rising concerns about European security. The absence of Ukraine and European leaders from the negotiations has highlighted fears of a deal that might not fully align with European interests.

The potential outcomes of the summit are multifaceted and dependent on the agreements reached between Trump and Putin. The best-case scenario would involve establishing a framework agreement that includes a ceasefire, potentially with minor land swaps, and recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty over most of its territory. Additionally, the West might agree not to recognize the occupied territories as part of Russia, but would refrain from military attempts to retake them. NATO would limit its troop presence and membership offer to Ukraine, and sanctions against Russia could be gradually lifted as part of the agreement.

However, the worst-case scenario involves Trump agreeing to a deal unacceptable to Ukraine and NATO, potentially leading to an irreparable rift in transatlantic relations and increased Russian influence over Ukraine. The exclusion of European leaders from the summit could further marginalize European interests, potentially leading to a sense of relief among some European leaders that a sweeping deal was not agreed upon, but also concern about the direction of future negotiations.

Trump has been attempting to facilitate peace in Ukraine for months, but has yet to make significant progress. The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is the first Russian president to travel to Anchorage, Alaska. Trump could entice Russian President Putin with economic cooperation in Alaska and the Bering Strait, the approximately 80-kilometer-wide sea passage between the USA and Russia.

Kirill Dmitriev, a high-ranking Kremlin negotiator, hinted at the possibility of closer cooperation between Moscow and Washington in the Arctic during the meeting. Alaska is considered "Russian-American" by some Russians, according to Kirill Dmitriev. The Elmendorf-Richardson military base, where the meeting is taking place, was used to observe and deter the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The meeting in Alaska is seen as symbolic, as Russian and Russian-indigenous culture is still present in some parts of Alaska. The joint press conference of the two heads of state has been announced, but no time has been set. Trump could also tempt with the lifting of some sanctions.

The White House is managing expectations for the summit, with the goal being a ceasefire and peace, but also wanting to assess Putin's seriousness about a negotiating offer. Trump sees the personal meeting with Putin as a potential turning point after three and a half years of war in Ukraine. The meeting between Putin and Trump is taking place on the Elmendorf-Richardson military base, where combat aircraft regularly take off to escort Russian jets out of US airspace.

The White House has let a deadline for drastic sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia's trading partners pass - except for a 25 percent import tariff on India due to its oil purchases. Trump could participate if the two warring parties wanted him to in a potential follow-up meeting. The United States bought Alaska from Russia in October 1867, at a bargain price.