Trump Imposes Reciprocal Tariffs: Industry Experts Predict Future Impact on Supply Chains

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In a move that has shaken up global trade dynamics, the U.S. introduced reciprocal tariffs in 2025, impacting businesses and the economy significantly. These tariffs, which range from 10% to over 40%, have disrupted established supply chains, increased import costs, and contributed to broader economic drag.

John Lash, group vice president of product strategy at supply chain software platform e2open, explains that tariffs serve various purposes, including reshoring, improving national security, and political pressure. However, Lash takes a wait-and-see approach, stating that building new factories takes years, costs billions of dollars, and requires long-term certainty.

The tariffs have had a negative impact on the economy and businesses. They have raised consumer prices, lowered GDP growth, increased unemployment, and depressed exports. Real GDP growth has been reduced by about 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, with unemployment rates rising and payroll employment falling by nearly half a million jobs by the end of 2025. Consumer prices increased by approximately 1.5% to 1.8%, translating to an average income loss of $2,000 to $2,400 per household in the short run.

In response, supply chain leaders are adapting by engaging in trade negotiations with U.S. authorities, seeking alternative sourcing and supply chain diversification, and paying closer attention to country-of-origin rules to manage tariff exposure. Some countries like Canada, India, and Brazil have experienced particularly sharp tariff increases, further pressuring businesses with supply chain dependencies there.

Kit Conklin, senior vice president of risk and compliance at global supply chain AI company Exiger, adds that tariffs are just one aspect of trade deals, with investment into the U.S. and market access for American companies also in play. Conklin notes that the reciprocal tariffs could incentivize certain countries to negotiate trade deals to avoid being caught in a tit-for-tat tariff cycle.

Negotiations for lowering tariff rates have occurred between some nations and the Trump administration. However, the administration was unable to follow through on its "90 deals in 90 days" goal of hands-on tariff negotiations with other countries.

Brian Pacula, supply chain partner at digital services firm West Monroe, states that in many cases, even with increased tariffs, it's still cheaper to import. Lekstutis views the current agreement as a short-term working baseline rather than a long-term fix, with many in the industry viewing it as politically fragile, with vague terms and unresolved sector carve-outs.

Lash also points out that the widespread manufacturing of some products just isn't completely plausible yet for U.S. industry, as the domestic infrastructure required to fully support production and manufacturing is still under development. Conklin adds that the widespread manufacturing of some products just isn't completely plausible yet for U.S. industry, as the domestic infrastructure required to fully support production and manufacturing is still under development.

Supply chain professionals are treating the next 60-90 days as a critical window for preemptive planning, realignment, and risk governance, suggesting they expect revisions or disputes down the line. The reciprocal tariffs create a more stable planning environment for procurement and supply chain leaders, but with higher costs.

The tariff strategy is causing global concerns and introducing complexity into global trade dynamics. As businesses and governments navigate these changes, they must remain adaptable and proactive in their supply chain strategies to maintain competitiveness amid elevated trade barriers.

[1] Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Imports from China: Preliminary Estimates

[2] The Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs on China

[3] The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Global Trade

[4] The Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

Trump Imposes Reciprocal Tariffs: Industry Experts Predict Future Impact on Supply Chains