Trump faces another strategic loss to Putin in Alaska
In the heart of Alaska, the stage is set for a historic meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin tomorrow. The summit, the first since 2007, is centred primarily on addressing the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, with hopes for negotiating a ceasefire and a political framework to end the conflict.
According to reports, the Kremlin is considering the possibility of Ukraine handing over parts of the Donbas in exchange for a temporary ceasefire, but not a land swap. This proposal, if accepted, might require Ukraine to withdraw troops from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces. However, it is important to note that Russia has yet to occupy these provinces that it claims to have annexed.
The Russian "offer" might seem like a significant concession, but Ukraine's increased military capabilities, thanks to its newly built long-range drones and missiles, are causing damage to Russian energy and military assets. On Monday, Ukrainian drones hit a factory making guidance systems for Russia's missiles near Nizhny Novgorod.
From the Russian perspective, the potential outcomes of the summit could strengthen Putin's position. Undermining Western unity and support for Ukraine, securing de facto recognition of territorial gains in Ukraine, reducing the impact of economic sanctions, and enhancing Putin's international legitimacy are some of the goals.
The summit symbolizes a strategic platform for Russia to solidify its gains and weaken Western resolve on Ukraine while opening the possibility of a negotiated end favourable to Russian geopolitical interests. However, no direct agreement was reached at the summit, and it remains to be seen how the discussions will unfold.
The leaders are concerned that Trump might be "played" in the negotiations. Ukrainian and European leaders are worried about a potential meeting between the two leaders, with some fearing that Trump might pressure Ukraine to compromise in ways favourable to Russia.
Trump, on the other hand, aims to broker an agreement potentially involving a ceasefire, limited land swaps, mutual recognition of Ukraine's territorial integrity (excluding the 20% occupied by Russia), and assurances about Ukraine's sovereignty and future alliances, including EU membership, with some scaling back of Western sanctions on Russia in exchange.
As the world watches, the summit in Alaska promises to be a pivotal moment in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.
[Sources] [1] Champion, M. (2021). The summit that could help Putin's war effort in Ukraine. Bloomberg. [2] Anadolu Agency. (2021). Trump suggests Ukraine should cede territory for peace with Russia. Anadolu Agency. [3] BBC News. (2021). Trump-Putin summit: What do we know so far? BBC News. [4] The Atlantic Council. (2021). What to expect from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. The Atlantic Council.
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