Trump Encourages Flexibility from Putin and Zelenskyy Regarding Peace Negotiations
In a bid to kick-start the peace process, US President Donald Trump has been instigating a whirlwind round of diplomacy, including a potential summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders.
Trump has been urging leaders of Ukraine and Russia to show flexibility in organizing a bilateral meeting, with a trilateral summit following a successful bilateral encounter. During a phone call with Putin, Trump marked the first time the two leaders have met since Russia's 2022 invasion.
Nigel Gould-Davies, a Russia expert, believes Putin will "absolutely rule out" a meeting with Zelensky, and that Zelensky's hope is that when Putin rejects the proposal, it will impress on Trump that Putin is the obstacle to peace. However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz predicts the bilateral meeting could occur within two weeks, while French President Emmanuel Macron suggests the trilateral summit could happen within three weeks.
The key now is to organize a face-to-face between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders. If the US agreed to seize frozen Russian assets, it could provide a significant shock to the Russian economy. However, Michael Carpenter stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is the only real security guarantee, which Putin opposes.
Instead, current proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine in the context of potential peace deals with Russia primarily centre on establishing credible commitments to prevent future Russian aggression if hostilities cease. These proposals include a combination of Ukrainian neutrality, limitations on its military, and international security assurances, predominantly led by European countries with US support—but notably excluding NATO membership for Ukraine.
Under these agreements, Ukraine would abandon plans to join NATO and become a neutral country. In exchange, Russia and other countries would provide security guarantees to deter aggression. Following a high-profile meeting at the White House, the US pledged to coordinate security guarantees to be given directly by European states rather than through NATO.
Reports indicate the possibility of a European-led military deployment within Ukraine to enforce peace, supported by US strategic assets such as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), command and control (C2), and air defense. The US would not deploy troops directly on the ground but would provide enabling capabilities, including possibly aircraft, logistics, and radar systems to support and protect European troops on the ground.
Part of the concept involves Ukrainian troops defending behind demilitarized zones patrolled by neutral peacekeeping forces, with NATO countries arming and training Ukrainian forces. The European-led “deterrence force” would hold a third line of defense further inside Ukraine.
However, observers remain cautious, noting persistent distrust of Russia’s promises given its history of violating agreements. Russian rejection of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil and reluctance to accept stringent guarantees complicate negotiations. Russian proposals, such as new legislation banning re-invasion, are viewed skeptically by Western and Ukrainian sources.
Trump has made clear that Mr Zelenskyy must forfeit ambitions of retaking Crimea, which Russia illegally seized in 2014. The President insists there must be a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy to prevent another invasion, such as those in 2014 and 2022. Trump expects to learn more about President Putin in the coming weeks.
In summary, the current security guarantee proposals involve Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, receiving security assurances primarily from European states coordinated by the US, supported by a European-led deterrence force on the ground with US enabling assets, alongside limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities to satisfy Russian demands. These arrangements aim to provide credible deterrence and peace assurances, though acceptance by Russia and the full details remain uncertain amid ongoing diplomacy.
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