Trump declares truce arrangement between India and Pakistan
Host:
Scott Simon here, and we've got some big news breaking today, as India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire after a series of increasingly intense skirmishes between the two nuclear-armed nations. President Trump announced the deal, stating that it came after a long night of intense negotiations between both sides. But just what role did the U.S. play in all of this? Let's bring in Elizabeth Threlkeld, Senior Fellow at the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, to break it down for us. Welcome, Elizabeth!
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
Thanks for having me, Scott.
Host:
So, what can you tell us about the U.S.'s involvement in brokering this ceasefire? The White House seems to be taking credit for this, but there seems to be some confusion about what actually happened.
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
Well, it's a bit complicated, Scott. Based on tweets from various administration officials, it appears that the U.S. played a significant role in the negotiations. It seems that President Trump, as you mentioned, announced this deal directly, claiming it was a result of late-night talks between both sides. Additionally, we've seen statements from Secretary Rubio, indicating that discussions were in coordination with partners in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia.
Host:
Remind us, Elizabeth, what exactly caused this latest escalation between India and Pakistan? And how were they able to declare a ceasefire?
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
That's an interesting question, Scott. At its core, this latest conflict stems from the long-standing dispute over Kashmir that dates back to the Partition in 1947. However, in recent years, India has accused Pakistan of sponsoring cross-border terrorism. The most recent example of this came on April 22, with a significant attack in India-administered Kashmir that claimed the lives of 26 predominantly Hindu tourists.
As tensions escalated over the past couple of weeks, both sides made diplomatic moves. But four days ago, a series of military actions began, with India conducting airstrikes in Pakistan and Pakistan retaliating. While we have a ceasefire now, it's important to note that there is still a lot of confusion and misinformation surrounding this conflict, so it's essential to take a step back and breathe a little easier for the time being, as this has been the most significant crisis between the two nations since the '90s.
Host:
It seems like this is more than just a territorial conflict over Kashmir. Is there more to this story?
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
Absolutely. While the dispute over Kashmir is the primary source of conflict, the rivalry between India and Pakistan has grown and expanded to encompass a wide range of issues over the past seven decades. Central among these issues is the cross-border terrorism accusations, with India suggesting that Pakistan is backing militant groups on its western border, while Pakistan alleges that India is sponsoring groups on Pakistan's own western border.
As for what happens next, Secretary Rubio's tweet mentioned an upcoming dialogue on these broader issues at a neutral site. It will be essential to address these underlying tensions if we want to prevent future crises like this one.
Host:
As we noted earlier, these are two nuclear-armed states. And, of course, the specter of nuclear warfare looms large amidst this conflict. Can you tell us about the nuclear strategies of both India and Pakistan, particularly as they relate to the right to strike first?
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
Indeed. India has a no-first-use doctrine, meaning it doesn't plan to be the first to deploy nuclear weapons in a conflict. Pakistan, however, lacks such a doctrine and maintains the concept of "full-spectrum deterrence," which could be interpreted as keeping the option of a first strike open. It's crucial to note that both nations have impressive nuclear arsenals, which creates a dangerous situation when tensions rise.
Host:
Lastly, Elizabeth, what key issues do you think will be up for discussion in the upcoming talks between India and Pakistan?
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
That's a great question, Scott. Given the complex and long-standing nature of India-Pakistan relations, there are multiple issues that could potentially be on the table for discussions. We can expect to see negotiations focused on territorial disputes over Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, de-escalation measures, and the establishment of sustained dialogue mechanisms.
In terms of humanitarian concerns, there will likely be discussions about civilian safety, displacement, and communication between affected populations. Ultimately, the success of these talks will depend on the willingness of both nations to compromise and work towards a lasting peace.
Host:
Elizabeth Threlkeld, thank you so much for joining us today and breaking down this complex situation for us.
Elizabeth Threlkeld:
My pleasure. Thank you, Scott.
- The U.S., according to administration officials' tweets, played a significant role in the negotiations for the India-Pakistan ceasefire amid the ongoing war-and-conflicts in Kashmir.
- Secretary Rubio's tweet indicates that discussions for a resolution were in coordination with partners in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia.
- The recent escalation between India and Pakistan stems from the long-standing dispute over Kashmir that dates back to the Partition in 1947, with tensions growing to encompass various issues like cross-border terrorism and nuclear strategies.
- In the upcoming talks between India and Pakistan, key issues for discussion will involve territorial disputes over Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, de-escalation measures, and the establishment of sustained dialogue mechanisms, as well as humanitarian concerns like civilian safety and displacement.
