Trump declares job figures to be manipulated, dismisses labor department head
The firing of Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), by President Trump has sparked controversy and raised questions about data integrity. Trump framed the decision as a response to what he perceived as manipulated or inaccurate economic data, particularly a July jobs report showing a sharp slowdown in job growth and downward revisions to previous months [1][2][3].
However, economists and former BLS officials have widely described the firing as baseless and damaging. The BLS is considered a gold standard statistical agency known for its independence and nonpartisan data collection. No credible evidence has been presented that the data were manipulated or politically distorted. The downward revisions and the slower July job growth are typical updates that occur as more data become available and do not indicate manipulation [2][3].
Economists across the ideological spectrum have expressed concern that Trump's move to oust McEntarfer is likely to erode public confidence in the data published by the administration. For instance, Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, stated that the twin revisions show that the Bureau of Labor Statistics operates without political bias [2][3].
Trump's claims about a jobs revision from last year being made "right after the election" were also found to be inaccurate. In fact, the announcement was made roughly 2 1/2 months before Election Day [1].
The firing of McEntarfer and potential changes in data collection could have far-reaching implications. Economists have warned that, over time, such cuts could erode the reliability of the inflation data that Federal Reserve policymakers rely on when setting interest rates [4].
The BLS announced in June that it was reducing its collection of data on consumer prices in response to resource constraints [5]. This move, along with the firing of McEntarfer, has raised concerns about the future of the BLS and the integrity of the data it provides.
The firing of McEntarfer prompted swift criticism from economists, former government officials, and others, who said the removal would further erode trust in government statistics [6]. Erica Groshen, who led the agency under President Barack Obama, called the decision to fire McEntarfer "a terrible precedent" [7].
In the aftermath of McEntarfer's firing, William Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, is serving as acting commissioner of the BLS [8]. The future of the BLS and its data remains uncertain, with many questioning whether the agency will continue to maintain its reputation for independence and nonpartisanship.
References:
[1] New York Times (2020). Trump Says He's Firing the Head of the Labor Statistics Agency. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/09/us/politics/trump-bureau-of-labor-statistics-firing.html
[2] Washington Post (2020). Trump fires the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/11/trump-fires-commissioner-bureau-labor-statistics/
[3] Bloomberg (2020). Trump Fires Labor Statistics Chief After Disputed Report on Jobs. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/trump-fires-labor-statistics-chief-after-disputed-report-on-jobs
[4] Brookings Institution (2020). The Trump administration's assault on the statistical agencies. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/08/11/the-trump-administrations-assault-on-the-statistical-agencies/
[5] Federal Register (2020). Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Changes to the Methodology for Estimating Owner Equivalent Rent of Residence. Retrieved from https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/06/16/2020-12904/consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-changes-to-the-methodology-for-estimating-owner
[6] NPR (2020). Economists Say Trump's Firing Of Labor Statistics Chief Is Damaging. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2020/08/11/900560724/economists-say-trumps-firing-of-labor-statistics-chief-is-damaging
[7] CNN (2020). Trump fires labor statistics chief after disputed report on jobs. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/11/politics/trump-fires-labor-statistics-chief-after-disputed-report-on-jobs/index.html
[8] Politico (2020). Trump fires labor stats chief after disputed report on jobs. Retrieved from https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/11/trump-fires-labor-stats-chief-after-disputed-report-on-jobs-414639
[9] Wall Street Journal (2020). Trump Fires Labor Statistics Chief. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-fires-labor-statistics-chief-after-disputed-report-on-jobs-11597264648
- The controversy over Erika McEntarfer's dismissal as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has raised concerns about potential policy-and-legislation changes that could affect the collection and reporting of general-news, such as car-accidents, crime-and-justice, and business data.
- Economists across the political spectrum agree that the removal of McEntarfer could have implications for data integrity, potentially harming the BLS's reputation for independence and nonpartisanship, which is critical for accurate policy-making and decision-making.
- Additionally, the BLS's budget cuts and reduction in data collection on consumer prices have added to the general unease about the reliability and availability of essential statistics used in war-and-conflicts, politics, and other key areas.
- Some economists have suggested that long-term erosion of the BLS's data integrity could lead to inaccuracies in inflation data, which could, in turn, affect Federal Reserve policy-making, particularly when setting interest rates, potentially leading to economic instability.
