Trump contemplating a three-way summit involving Putin and Zelensky

In eastern Ukraine, the conflict continues to rage, with active fighting mainly around Novopavlivka and surrounding areas. Ukrainian forces have recently made advances, including retaking the settlement of Tovste southwest of Novopavlivka [1]. Russian forces, on the other hand, are conducting strikes with unguided glide bombs in the area and maintaining offensive pressure, but without confirmed significant gains [1][3].

As the conflict persists, Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Anchorage this Friday. The meeting comes amid Trump's efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine, but there are significant concerns and uncertainties surrounding the event.

Trust between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is at an all-time low. Putin has historically refused to meet Zelensky directly during the conflict, actively undermining Zelensky’s legitimacy and reportedly targeting him with assassination attempts early in the war [2]. Moscow tends to delegitimize Zelensky as a partner, referring instead to the "Kyiv regime," and Putin reportedly does not consider Zelensky an equal negotiation counterpart [2].

These attitudes threaten the possibility of genuine progress. Western backers of Ukraine are wary because Trump has at times echoed Russian narratives questioning Ukraine's sovereignty and Zelensky's legitimacy, unsettling Kyiv and European allies [2].

The Kremlin, however, has been cautious about the meeting, proposing instead talks between lower-level officials. This suggests Putin's continued desire to prolong the war while exploiting vague promises of negotiations to delay a real peace process [4]. Putin’s position includes demands that Ukraine recognize the incorporation of the Donbas region into Russia, which Ukraine does not accept [4].

In contrast, Trump has shifted his position toward skipping a ceasefire prerequisite and moving directly to a peace agreement, advocating for the tripartite summit [4]. This divergence in approach underscores the fragility and complexity of the anticipated meeting.

Meanwhile, on the ground, Ukrainian soldiers in Kramatorsk, an eastern city about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the front, have low expectations for Trump's meeting with Putin. Artem, a 30-year-old serviceman, believes the war will likely continue for "a long time" and states that Putin is massing an army, his army is growing, and he is stockpiling weapons [5].

The AFP data analysis shows that the Russian army typically takes five or six days to progress at such a pace, but this has been accelerated in recent weeks [6]. The head of the Donetsk region has even ordered civilians with children to evacuate from towns and villages under threat.

Despite Trump's promise to end the conflict in Ukraine on his first day in office, he has made little progress. Moreover, Zelensky and European allies have urged Trump to push for a ceasefire in Ukraine [7]. However, Trump has threatened "secondary sanctions" on Russia's trading partners over its invasion of Ukraine, but no measures have been announced [8].

In summary, the meeting between Trump and Putin could be historically significant if it occurs, but the entrenched conflict and political dynamics make its success uncertain [2][4]. The low expectations of Ukrainian soldiers and the cautious stance of the Kremlin suggest a potentially difficult road ahead.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-forces-striking-with-unguided-glide-bombs-around-novopavlivka-2021-08-21/ [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/europe/trump-putin-ukraine-summit.html [3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19 [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-calls-putin-zelensky-meeting-premature-proposes-talks-between-lower-level-2021-08-19/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-offensive-in-ukraine-makes-biggest-advance-in-over-a-year-2021-08-12/ [6] https://www.afp.com/en/news/1342/russia-makes-biggest-advance-ukraine-over-a-year-amid-trump-putin-summit-talks [7] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-speaks-european-leaders-including-zelensky-following-very-good-call-2021-08-18/ [8] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-threatens-secondary-sanctions-russias-trading-partners-over-ukraine-2019-12-19/