Send a Million Immigrants Packing - The USA
Trump considering potential removal of approximately one million immigrants from the United States.
If ol' Donnie Trump makes a triumphant return to the White House, he's threatening to boot a whole lotta people without the right papers. His campaign's tossed around different numbers, but his VP nominee, JD Vance, spilled the beans to ABC News recently - a cool million is the magic number. He even took a swipe at Kamala Harris, claiming she's been slacking on this front.
But here's the kicker - experts are warning that even though this is music to Trump's ears, there's a whole bunch of legal and practical hurdles standing in the way of this mass migration shuffle.
The Legal Hurdles
We've got about 11 million undocumented immigrants living it up in the US, a number that's been stubbornly steady since 2005. Most of these folks have been here a while, practically setting up shop for nearly eight decades.
Even though they don't have legal status, these immigrants still have the right to a court hearing before they get the boot. A massive expansion of the immigration court system would likely be required to handle all the cases, considering they're already bogged down with work.
Most immigrants end up in the deportation process not because of ICE agents but because of local law enforcement. Ironically, many large cities and counties have laws that limit how closely their police can work with ICE.
Trump's campaign has talked tough about going after these "sanctuary cities," but the mix of local, state, and federal laws makes this a sticky wicket. Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy whiz from the Migration Policy Institute, says cooperation between ICE and local officials would be the key to any mass deportation operation. She explains that catching someone in jail is much easier if local cops play ball, compared to ICE having to track them down on their own.
For instance, in early August, sheriffs from Florida's Broward and Palm Beach counties made it clear they wouldn't help with any mass deportation shenanigans. And if the experiences of Ms. Bush-Joseph are any indication, many other local officials would likely refuse to cooperate, making mass deportations a whole lot harder.
A mass deportation program would also face a barrage of legal challenges from immigration and human rights groups. However, a 2022 Supreme Court ruling means that courts can't stop immigration enforcement policies while these challenges are being worked out, so the deportations could continue even in the midst of legal wrangling.
Can it be done, logistically?
Even if the US government could legally muscle through with mass deportations, there'd be a mountain of logistical challenges to surmount.
Under the Biden administration, deportations have mostly targeted migrants caught at the border. Migrants deported from deeper within the US are usually those with criminal records or seen as a threat to national security. Workplace raids, a staple during Trump's term, were canned in 2021.
For the past decade, fewer than 100,000 people arrested inside the US have been deported annually, a sharp drop from over 230,000 during Obama's early days. Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a policy director from the American Immigration Council, tells us that jacking this number up to a million in a single year would require an almost superhuman amount of resources that may be in short supply.
ICE, with its 20,000 agents and support staff, ain't gonna have enough manpower to round up the numbers the Trump campaign's suggesting. The deportation process is a complex dance that doesn't end with an arrest. Detainees need to be housed or placed in alternative programs while they wait for an immigration judge, in a system already creaking under the weight of backlogs. Removing them from the US also requires cooperation from the country they're being sent to. Reichlin-Melnick notes that ICE just doesn't have the capacity to handle millions of deportations.
Trump's suggested bringing in the National Guard or other military forces to help with deportations. The military's role in immigration has primarily been limited to support at the US-Mexico border. Beyond this, Trump's been tight-lipped about how such a massive operation could be rolled out. In a TIME magazine interview, he hinted at building new detention facilities and offering police immunity from prosecution by liberal or progressive groups. He also mentioned dangling rewards to police departments that participate in the plan, while those that don't "won't be partaking in the party." Trump insists that mass deportations are necessary for the country.
The Trump campaign didn't return our calls when we reached out for a comment.
Eric Ruark, research director at NumbersUSA, a group that champions tighter immigration controls, says any effective deportation program would also require stronger border enforcement. Without it, progress inside the country would be minimal. Ruark also stresses the need to crack down on companies that hire undocumented migrants, as they're the ones laying out the welcome mat with jobs.
The Financial and Political Costs
Experts estimate that booting a million or more people could cost tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. In 2023, ICE had a measly $420 million budget for transportation and deportation and deported just over 140,000 people. Expanding this effort to meet Trump's goal would require detaining thousands of immigrants while they wait for court hearings or deportations. The Trump campaign has suggested building large camps to house them.
To deport so many people, the number of removal flights would need to increase dramatically, potentially requiring the use of military aircraft. Even minor tinkerings in these areas would come with hefty price tags. Aaron Reichlin-Melnick from the American Immigration Council notes that even small changes could cost tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, and major changes could cost much more.
These expenses would be in addition to other border enforcement efforts that Trump's promised, like continuing work on the US-Mexico border wall, creating a naval blockade to stop fentanyl from sneaking in, and sending thousands of troops to the border.
Adam Isacson, a migration and border expert from the Washington Office on Latin America, warns that "nightmarish images" of mass deportations could be politically damaging. He suggests that seeing folks, even those cherished by their communities, being deported could create some seriously bad press, akin to family separation on a grand scale.
Have Mass Deportations Happened Before?
During Trump's previous four-year run as prez, around 1.5 million people were deported, both at the border and from within the US. The Biden administration, which had deported about 1.1 million people by February 2024, is on track to match that number.
During Obama's two terms, over three million people were deported, earning him the moniker of the "deporter-in-chief."
The only historical comparison to a mass deportation program is from 1954 when up to 1.3 million people were deported during Operation Wetback, a program under President Dwight Eisenhower. However, this figure is disputed by historians. The program faced significant public opposition, partly because some US citizens were inadvertently deported, and it suffered from a lack of funding, leading to its discontinuation by 1955.
Immigration experts say that comparing Operation Wetback to a modern-day mass deportation is misleading. Kathleen Bush-Joseph of the Migration Policy Institute points out that the 1950s program mostly targeted single Mexican men. Today, most undocumented migrants hail from countries other than Mexico or northern Central America, making deportation more challenging. As a result, the situations aren't easily comparable.
Published: 16th Aug 2024
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The Trump campaign's proposed mass deportation of a million undocumented immigrants faces numerous legal hurdles, including court hearings for each person, limited cooperation from local law enforcement in some areas, and potential legal challenges from immigration and human rights groups. The logistical challenges are equally daunting, with the need for an expansion of the immigration court system, increased resources for ICE, and potentially the use of military aircraft, which could cost tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. These expenses would be in addition to other border enforcement efforts promised by Trump, such as the continuation of work on the US-Mexico border wall and a naval blockade to stop fentanyl. The potential political costs could also be significant, as seen during Operation Wetback in the 1950s, which faced public opposition and was later discontinued due to lack of funding.
