Trump and Putin to Hold a Meeting: What are Their Mutual Objectives?
In a highly anticipated meeting this Friday in Alaska, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to discuss ending Putin's war with Ukraine. The summit, put together in just nine days, marks the fastest summit arranged in recent history, according to John Bolton, former National Security Advisor to President Trump.
Potential Benefits for President Trump
Engaging directly with Putin could position Trump as a key diplomatic actor capable of brokering peace or advancing ceasefire options in Ukraine, thereby enhancing his stature on the world stage. Success or progress in talks may also bolster Trump's image as a statesman able to manage global conflicts, potentially benefiting his political standing within the U.S.
Trump's discussions have involved potential U.S. support and security guarantees for Ukraine, which could be framed as a strategic win in balancing support to Ukraine while managing relations with Russia. The meeting presents an opportunity for Trump to shape security guarantees that could help maintain a delicate balance in the region.
Potential Risks for President Trump
The summit ended without an official agreement to end the war, which could be perceived as a diplomatic failure or weakness. Criticism may also arise if Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is excluded from the talks, potentially undermining legitimacy and attracting criticism that the U.S. is enabling Russia's territorial ambitions.
Negotiating security guarantees acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia without involving NATO commitments poses risks to alliance cohesion and U.S. credibility. Balancing these interests will be a challenging task for President Trump.
Potential Benefits for President Putin
Meeting with a former U.S. president may confer diplomatic weight and reinforce Putin’s narrative of Russia as a key global power player. Engaging with Trump allows Putin to negotiate on Russia’s terms, potentially extracting concessions related to territorial claims in Donbas and security guarantees.
Potential Risks for President Putin
The talks yielded no peace deal, and Russia’s broader geopolitical challenges and sanctions may deepen if the war drags on without resolution. If the U.S. and European allies unify around strong security guarantees for Ukraine, Russia risks diplomatic isolation and ongoing military pressure.
Prolonged conflict without resolution can strain Putin’s domestic standing, especially if Ukraine resists territorial concessions and pushback grows. Putin's objective is not to reach a peace agreement but to recreate the Russian Empire, and the meeting could potentially provide insight into his strategies and intentions.
The Absence of Ukraine and Zelenskyy
Bolton states that earlier this year, Trump and Putin spoke without consulting Zelenskyy, and Putin made significant progress. The absence of Ukraine from direct negotiations could put Zelenskyy and Ukraine in an untenable position if Trump presents an unacceptable plan.
The Role of John Bolton
John Bolton, who was in the room during the last Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki in 2018, believes that President Trump views international relations as personal relations between heads of state. He also believes that Trump is giving Putin a platform and an opportunity that could potentially allow Putin to use his KGB training to gain an advantage.
The meeting this Friday promises to be a significant event in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The outcome could shape the trajectory of the war and have far-reaching implications for both leaders and the international community.
- With a potential focus on discussing ways to end the war in Ukraine, President Trump could strengthen his image as a statesman capable of managing global conflicts and enhance his standing within the U.S. politics.
- Negotiating security guarantees without NATO commitments could pose a risk to alliance cohesion and U.S. credibility, making it a challenging task for President Trump to balance these interests.
- Meeting with Trump can benefit President Putin by reinforcing Russia's status as a key global power player, allowing him to negotiate on Russia's terms related to territorial claims and security guarantees.
- The absence of Ukraine and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the talks could put them in an untenable position if Trump presents an unacceptable plan, potentially undermining legitimacy and attracting criticism.
