Trump and Putin are preparing to confront each other in an upcoming meeting
The upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Alaska, presents an opportunity for discussions on strategic arms control and the potential aversion of a nuclear arms race. However, the Ukraine conflict and security guarantees for Ukraine remain unresolved and politically sensitive issues.
Arms Control Agreements
Both the USA and Russia have expressed concern about the impending expiration of the New START treaty, the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the two nations, which is set to expire in February 2026. President Trump has publicly expressed a desire to maintain strategic nuclear arms limits and work towards an interim or successor deal to avoid a renewed arms race. Russia, while suspending participation in New START inspections, claims to observe stockpile limits despite not allowing U.S. verification.
Ukraine Conflict
The Ukraine conflict remains a highly contentious issue with no indication that it has been substantively addressed in recent U.S.-Russia diplomacy. The upcoming summit offers a potential platform, but advocacy groups emphasize that any resolution should include Ukrainian government representatives, and that unresolved tensions continue to overshadow arms control dialogue.
Security Guarantees for Ukraine
Regarding potential security guarantees for Ukraine, no direct statements or formal proposals from either the U.S. or Russia have emerged publicly in the context of the upcoming summit. President Trump has expressed a willingness to provide security guarantees for Ukraine outside of NATO, but the details remain unclear.
Other Issues
The focus of the summit will be on the Ukraine conflict, but other issues will also be discussed. Among the European demands is that Ukraine must be present at any follow-up meetings. The Kremlin has offered new arms control agreements ahead of the talks, contingent upon resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
Tariffs and Sanctions
In a separate development, the USA recently imposed a 25% import tariff on Indian goods to discourage oil purchases from Russia. President Trump sees tariffs as a more effective tool than sanctions. The US believes it can quickly bring the Russian economy to its knees if necessary, with main steps coming from the US Treasury Department.
Ceasefire and Negotiations
Analysts suggest that any discussion of territorial issues should not recognize Russian conquests as legitimate. There should be a ceasefire before negotiations, with the current frontline as the starting point. However, it is uncertain whether President Trump will be able to prevent further attacks on Ukraine.
Follow-up Meeting with Zelenskyy
President Trump seeks a quick follow-up meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but this is contingent on the success of the initial encounter. Zelenskyy and his supporters believe that Ukraine must be involved in peace negotiations.
In summary, the summit is principally seen as a chance to address strategic arms control and potentially avert a nuclear arms race triggered by the New START expiration, with the Ukraine conflict and security guarantees remaining unresolved and politically sensitive issues. The US, Europe, and Ukraine all emphasize the need for Ukrainian government representatives to be involved in any discussions and negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict and its future security.
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