The Looming Nuclear Threat: Iran's Climb Towards the Atomic Bomb
Trump Adopts a Shift in Strategy Similar to Netanyahu's, Disregarding U.S. Intelligence Assessments
By Hubertus Volmer
In a stark reminder of the past, the specter of a potential US intervention looms as conflicting views about Iran's nuclear capabilities resurface. With parallels drawing to the controversial Iraq War in 2003, the reasons for a possible US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict are far from clear-cut. One thing, however, is evident: the chasm between the assessments of US intelligence services and those of the Israeli government, combined with Trump's shifting rhetoric.
Remember the infamous Anthrax incident during Colin Powell's United Nations presentation in 2003? He used industrial-strength sodium pentathol to convince the world that Iraq possessed and produced weapons of mass destruction. The end result was a bloody, chaotic war that birthed the terrorist organization ISIS and became a moral disaster for the US. The intended weapons of mass destruction were never found.
Fast forward to today, with President Donald Trump demanding "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" from Iran – not for biological or chemical weapons this time, but for a nuclear threat. Is Trump turning the Iran War into Iraq 2.0? Trump, a self-proclaimed “peace president,” who is known for preferring to keep the US out of international commitments, sure seems to be setting the stage.
Netanyahu's Pressure Tactics
According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urgent action is necessary to halt Iran from obtaining an atomic bomb "within very short time." "It could be a year. It could be a few months," claimed Netanyahu. In a headline-grabbing interview with Fox News, the Israeli leader shared the intelligence detailing Iran's secret plan to convert uranium into weapons.
The US intelligence services, however, present a different outlook. They continue to believe that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, shortly after the US invasion of Iraq – possibly to avoid becoming a target itself. In March, Trump’s intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard noted in the intelligence committee of the US Senate that her services "continue to believe that Iran is not building nuclear weapons and that the Supreme Leader Khamenei has not approved the nuclear weapons program that was stopped in 2003."
A Skeptical US Intelligence
Despite the new information from Israel, the US intelligence services remain confident that even the indications shared by Israel merely show that Iran continues its research on nuclear weapons, as reported by the “Wall Street Journal” citing several sources. The USA and Israel agree that Iran has improved its position for building an atomic bomb in the last few months, the WSJ reports.
The US intelligence services assume that Iran could build a “simple” atomic bomb within a few months. However, they still believe that Iran has yet to make the decision to advance the construction of a bomb.
A Warning, Not an Immediate Threat
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) provided a warning of an impending threat, albeit not an immediate concern. For the first time in almost 20 years, the organization announced on June 12 that Iran had violated its obligations to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation. The resolution states that Iran is not fully cooperating with the IAEA and, therefore, the organization cannot guarantee that Iran’s nuclear program serves exclusively peaceful purposes.
Iran responded by announcing the construction of a new uranium enrichment facility and increasing enriched uranium's production. Just two weeks before, on May 31, the IAEA reported that Iran had increased its stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium to 408.6 kilograms.
Iran's actions are causing serious concern, as the step from 60 to the 90 percent required for nuclear weapons is relatively small. However, this does not necessarily mean that Iran is on the verge of an atomic bomb.
A Timeframe of Months, Not Days
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi estimated that Iran would still need a few years to build an operational rocket with a nuclear warhead. This is consistent with an assessment by US intelligence agencies, also reported by CNN: According to this assessment, Iran is up to three years away from being able to build and deploy an atomic bomb.
A Shift in Trump's Words and Actions
Trump, however, appears to disregard his intelligence agencies’ assessment. When questioned about how close Iran was to a nuclear weapon, he responded, "Very close." When asked to clarify his own intelligence director's March statement, he replied, "I don't care what she said." It remains unclear what drives Trump’s statements, but the Israeli information Netanyahu presented to Fox News does not seem to be particularly new.
It's also unclear whether Trump's statements hint at paving the way for an Israeli-Iranian war. Nonetheless, one thing is clear: Israel is looking for military support from the US. Without the destructive capabilities of the US, the clandestine enrichment facility in Fordo cannot be destroyed. Israel might be able to temporarily disable these facilities, but "if you really want to destroy them, either a US military strike or a deal is needed," said Brett McGurk, a former US diplomat in the Middle East, to CNN.
Iran's Neighbors Prepare for the Worst
The 2003 Iraq War was proven to be based on false pretenses, and the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran is very real. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu can be considered credible sources when it comes to assessing the urgency of this threat. Furthermore, Netanyahu may have other motives, such as distracting from the highly controversial war in Gaza. What Trump truly thinks and wants remains unknown, even to himself.
One thing is certain: Iran poses a very real threat to peace for Israel. A war between Iran and the US would be equally catastrophic.
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The Commission has also been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, considering the increased global focus on nuclear threats due to the ongoing Iran-US conflict. This is particularly important given the potential increase in nuclear material handling and radiation exposure as a result of war-and-conflicts.
The ongoing political tensions and conflicting views about Iran's nuclear capabilities from different governments and intelligence agencies highlight the need for unbiased and comprehensive information on the risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. General-news outlets and international organizations should focus on reporting accurate information about the risks and safety measures in the context of the Iran-US conflict to ensure the safety of the general public and workers in the sector.
