Trump Administration's Foreign Policy Strategy Regarding Venezuela
Going back to the White House, the return of Donald Trump raised questions about the US's foreign policy, particularly in regards to Venezuela. Sticking with the old playbook of US exceptionalism, the new administration got right to it with their anti-immigration policies. special envoy Richard Grenell even held a public meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, focusing on accepting migrant deportation flights.
The million-dollar question is, what more does Washington have in store for Venezuela? What do they have planned for the hardline opposition? And what are the options for sanctions?
Parallels and Pseudo-Governments
Deciding whether to bring back the "Guaido 2.0" scenario is one of the first things the Trump administration must tackle. This would mean recognizing yet another presidential claimant, potentially causing complications financially and legally.
The current "legitimate government" of Venezuela is a fake National Assembly that hasn't been in session for four years. But this sham group still gets some financial assistance from the US as they grapple with whether to back a newcomer like Edmundo Gonzalez.
Turning Gonzalez into the face of the opposition would mean dealing with a new bureaucracy and possibly derailing ongoing legal proceedings, such as the auction of PDVSA's US-based subsidiary, CITGO.
A Migrant Crusade
Trump surfed back into office on a wave of racism and xenophobia, making migrants the perfect scapegoat. Despite his "maximum pressure" sanctions policy playing a significant role in driving people from Venezuela, Trump aims to sell a win by making good on his anti-migrant promises. This will likely involve cozying up to the Maduro administration for deportation flights, scoring a PR victory for both sides.
Unlicensing Chevron
Some political circles, including US foreign policy hawks and oil lobbies, are pushing for tougher sanctions against Venezuela. Trump himself suggested cutting off oil purchases from Venezuela. Although removing Chevron's license would be a significant blow to Venezuela's oil output, it might not significantly increase the likelihood of regime change.
Maximizing Pressure, Minimizing Effort
Other than pulling Chevron's license and driving away European companies, there aren't any loud, attention-grabbing measures left for the US Treasury Department. However, they could take further steps to tighten enforcement, going after intermediaries and those helping Caracas skirt sanctions. This would drive up the cost of doing business with Venezuela, forcing the Maduro government to offer better deals for oil exports.
Deals and Dishonesty
Apart from foreign policy hardliners and oil lobbyists, there are voices advocating for a more avaricious approach. This "America-first" policy would involve giving US corporations opportunities in Venezuela at the expense of the country's sovereignty, possibly leading to future privatizations. In exchange, the Maduro government might be tempted to accept these deals, even if it means compromising its authority.
In the end, the key decisions lie with Trump, who might find the "America First" approach advantageous. But it would require a delicate balancing act between the hardliners and the oil lobbies, leaving him in a precarious position as the US and Venezuela continue their ongoing dance of power and corruption. And, as always, the Venezuelan government remains a formidable player, responding to sanctions with resistance and regional integration efforts.
- The Trump administration faces a crucial decision on whether to revive the 'Guaido 2.0' scenario, potentially recognizing another presidential claimant like Edmundo Gonzalez, which could cause complications financially and legally.
- The US continues to financially support the sham National Assembly of Venezuela, a group that hasn't been in session for four years, as they weigh up backing a newcomer like Gonzalez, which could lead to dealing with a new bureaucracy and potentially derailing ongoing legal proceedings.
- Trump's anti-migrant rhetoric, driven by his wave of racism and xenophobia, is likely to involve cozying up to the Maduro administration for deportation flights, scoring a PR victory for both sides despite his 'maximum pressure' sanctions policy playing a significant role in driving people from Venezuela.
- Aside from pulling Chevron's license and driving away European companies, the US Treasury Department could tighten enforcement, going after intermediaries and those helping Caracas skirt sanctions, driving up the cost of doing business with Venezuela and potentially forcing the Maduro government to offer better deals for oil exports.
