Tropical storm Ivo delivers torrential rain and hazardous waves to Mexico's Western seashores.
Tropical Storm Ivo, which formed south of Mexico in the Pacific, is moving northwestward and expected to remain mostly offshore, but its impacts are still significant for coastal areas.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Ivo could produce total rainfall of roughly 100 mm (3.9 inches) across portions of Mexico's Pacific Coast, with potential for flash flooding in the states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima.
Conagua, Mexico's weather service, issued a warning related to the heavy surf for Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and Guerrero, and also predicts heavy wind and rains elsewhere in the country. These impacts are caused by Ivo's high-altitude cyclonic circulation, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean, and a low-pressure trough over the southeast of the country.
Heavy rains are expected primarily over southwestern Mexican states such as Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, Guerrero, and parts of Oaxaca, with 2 to 4 inches (5-10 cm) typical and isolated totals reaching up to 6 inches (15 cm), raising flash flood risks. Conagua predicts "intense rainfall" in the states of Jalisco and Nayarit, as well as heavy rains in Michoacán and Colima.
In addition to the heavy rainfall, maximum sustained winds are 75 km/h (47 mph), and while mostly offshore, tropical-storm-force winds extend roughly 40 miles from Ivo's center. Wind intensity is forecast to increase to hurricane strength briefly before tapering off as the storm moves away. Gusts of 40 to 60 km/h (25 to 37 mph) could occur in the northern states of Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, and Aguascalientes.
The storm is also stirring up life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions. Although landfall is unlikely, Ivo has caused storm surge effects and continues to produce large ocean swells along southwestern Mexico, especially near the southern Baja California Peninsula. These swells create dangerous rip currents and life-threatening surf conditions, which will persist through the weekend. The combined effect of Ivo and nearby Tropical Storm Henriette enhances rip current threats on Mexican shores.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed, follow local weather updates, and heed any warnings issued by Conagua. Ivo is expected to continue dumping rain on coastal Mexican states throughout Thursday and Friday before moving away from the country by the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that intense rainfall will occur in the states of Jalisco and Nayarit, as well as heavy rains in Michoacán and Colima, which are located in the southwest region of Mexico. Conagua warns that heavy surf conditions and strong winds are expected to affect the northern states of Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, and Aguascalientes, with potential for flash floods and life-threatening surf conditions in southwestern coastal states such as Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, and parts of Oaxaca.
