Tropical Storm Erin saturates Puerto Rico - what anticipated effects could the U.S. mainland experience?
Hurricane Erin, the powerful storm currently classified as a Category 3, is making its way across the Atlantic. Despite predictions suggesting that the hurricane will not make landfall on the U.S. mainland, coastal communities should remain vigilant due to the potential for significant impacts[1][2][3][4][5].
As of now, Hurricane Erin is skirting between the East Coast and Bermuda[6]. The storm has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), making it a larger storm, and has exhibited an extreme case of rapid intensification[7]. However, the quick weakening of Hurricane Erin over the past 6 to 12 hours is associated with its structural changes and not environmental conditions[8].
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters predict re-strengthening of Hurricane Erin due to favourable environmental conditions[9]. Gradual decay in the peak winds of Hurricane Erin is expected due to a broadening of the wind field and some increase in shear beyond 24 to 36 hours[10].
Despite not making landfall, Hurricane Erin could bring dangerous swells and rip currents to the eastern U.S. coast[2][3][4]. The storm's larger physical size could potentially bring outer bands to the U.S. coast by midweek[5]. In particular, North Carolina’s Outer Banks are at risk, with mandatory evacuations ordered due to flooding threats from inundation 2 to 4 feet above ground level[3][4].
Appropriate watches and warnings have been issued for the Bahamas due to Hurricane Erin's predicted path[11]. Isolated rainfall amounts approaching 4 to 8 inches pose a threat of flooding, landslide, and mudslide on these islands[12]. Outer bands of Hurricane Erin have already inundated Puerto Rico and other islands in the region[6].
It's essential to remember that hurricanes are not dots or lines on a map and can have broad impacts well beyond the center of the storm[13]. Hurricane Erin is predicted to turn to the north and then northeast due to an atmospheric transition[4]. The NHC defines landfall as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline[14].
In summary, while Hurricane Erin is not expected to make landfall on the U.S. mainland, it poses an indirect but serious threat to U.S. coastal communities, especially via storm surge, flooding, and rip currents. Coastal communities should remain alert and follow any instructions from local authorities.
Weather forecasts predict that Hurricane Erin, a major hurricane currently classified as a Category 3, could bring dangerous rip currents to the eastern U.S. coast, particularly to North Carolina’s Outer Banks, and potentially affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The Hurricane Center forecasters anticipate re-strengthening of Hurricane Erin due to favorable environmental conditions, despite its recent quick weakening caused by structural changes and not environmental conditions.
