Caribbean faces potential danger from the initial Atlantic hurricane of the year - Tropical storm brewing in the Atlantic poses danger to Caribbean islands
In the Pacific, the hurricane season begins on May 15 and ends on November 30. However, in late August 2025, the focus has been on the Atlantic, where Hurricane Erin is making its way across the ocean.
Hurricane Erin, the first of the 2021 Atlantic season, formed near Cape Verde around August 11 and became a hurricane as it approached the Lesser Antilles by August 15. By August 16, it had intensified rapidly into a major hurricane, with sustained winds of up to 160 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane.
The hurricane, however, did not directly impact Puerto Rico. Instead, it moved northeast of the island, undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and weakening to a Category 3 hurricane. It later briefly re-strengthened to Category 4 before weakening again due to wind shear and dry air.
By August 22-23, Erin had moved well north of the Caribbean, passing between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda and was expected to become post-tropical by the weekend. Forecast model “spaghetti maps” showed that Erin skirts well away from the Caribbean islands and continues moving north-northeast away from the islands southeast of Puerto Rico, such as Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, and St. Kitts and Nevis.
Given this trajectory and weakening trend, these islands are unlikely to experience direct impact from Hurricane Erin by the weekend. The storm’s major hurricane phase was primarily northeast of Puerto Rico earlier in August, and it is now moving away from the Lesser Antilles region.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami has advised Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands to monitor the development of Erin, but the hurricane is not currently predicted to directly impact the island of Puerto Rico.
Experts say that increasing global warming raises the likelihood of strong storms like Hurricane Erin. As of now, Erin is approximately 750 kilometers from the Leeward Islands in the English Caribbean and is moving westward.
It's important to note that tropical storms form over warm ocean water, and the Caribbean region may still be impacted by remnants of Hurricane Erin. Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay updated and prepared for any potential weather changes.
- Despite Hurricane Erin not impacting Puerto Rico directly, the Commission may still seek assistance from Member States to implement measures related to the remnants of Hurricane Erin in the Caribbean.
- As global warming increases the likelihood of strong storms like Hurricane Erin, it's essential for weather forecasting to be accurate, particularly for predicting the movement and potential impacts of tropical storm remnants in the Caribbean.
