Toxic Substances in Hamas Operations
Gaza Stability Questionable as Hamas Faces Multiple Challenges
Over a year since the surprise attack on Israel, Hamas has seen a decline in military strength and a loss of popular support in Gaza. Yet, the group remains the dominant force in the region with no apparent leadership vacuum.
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, and head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center in Tel Aviv, asserts that Hamas remains the "main player in Gaza". Khalil Shikaki, a political science professor and director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, agrees, stating that there's no one else capable of taking control in the Strip.
Despite the elimination of key Hamas decision-makers, including the elder and younger Sinwar brothers, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, Saleh Al-Arouri, and Ismail Haniyeh, the organization's base in Gaza remains steadfast and radical. Hamas has shown resilience by "re-creating new ones," as Milshtein describes it.
Hamas aims to preserve its military capabilities against Israelis while maintaining its governance over Gaza. According to Shikaki, Hamas has been successful in these objectives, despite various attempts by Israel to weaken or defeat the group without permanently controlling the region.
Protests against Hamas have increased in recent months, accusing the group of causing destruction in Gaza and misusing humanitarian aid. These protests, while still posing risks to participants, have become slightly less dangerous compared to pre-October 2023 levels. Nevertheless, Hamas retains the capacity to punish those who challenge its authority.
Shikaki's surveys suggest that while the number of protestors is minimal, approximately half of Gaza's population supports the protests. This indicates a prevalence of secular nationalists in Gaza, a demographic that Hamas has yet to fully control.
Vestiges of defiance against Hamas are sporadic, primarily originating from a criminal Bedouin gang in Rafah called Abu Shabab. Elsewhere in Gaza, no similar resistance movements have emerged.
Hamas's ingrained presence within Gaza's civil society makes it difficult for Israel to strike the organization without causing civilian casualties. Regarding the allegations of using civilians as human shields, Shikaki considers the claims an exaggeration. He explains that Hamas's strategy relies on tunnels and small cells, somewhat protecting the civilian population.
Financial difficulties also challenge Hamas due to international sanctions and the blockade limiting their access to funding. As a result, the group struggles to consistently pay its members, but a total collapse is not imminent, according to Milshtein. If the financial crisis persists, however, internal collapse is a realistic possibility.
The ongoing challenges faced by Hamas could result in the erosion of its influence and potentially alter the political landscape in Gaza. The absence of viable alternatives and the complexity of the conflict make it challenging to predict clear outcomes. However, increased international pressure, a worsening humanitarian crisis, external intervention, or a re-evaluation of Hamas's role by the international community are all potential scenarios moving forward.
- The increase in protests against Hamas in Gaza, accompanied by accusations of causes like destruction and misuse of humanitarian aid, suggest that secular nationalists are challenging Hamas's authority.
- Amidst war-and-conflicts and political instability, Hamas's resilience appears in its ability to maintain its military capabilities against Israelis and govern Gaza, despite diverse challenges such as financial difficulties, internal opposition, and war-related confrontations, making it a significant player in the general-news scenario of Gaza's future.
