Top Wagering Picks for MLB Home Runs on May 9, 2025
Cranking Home Runs Today: Here are our top two players smashing homeruns tonight – Jackson Chourio and Kyle Schwarber. Both players boast excellent matchup ratings, making them prime candidates to smash one out of the park.
Let's Delve Into the Details:
- Jackson Chourio: This young talent looks set to shine in Tampa with 80-degree weather and a breezy wind blowing towards the outfield fence. Chourio's rating on Batters-Box.com is top-notch, and in the games where he holds a great road rating, he homers an impressive 21% of the time (in a small sample size of 14 games, but still worth noting).
He'll be facing Zack Littell, who sports a 4.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The right-handed Littell throws his fastball 41% of the time with an average grade according to FanGraphs. Chourio has had past success against sliders, batting .256 with a .739 OPS and a 107 wRC+. Littell's strongest pitch, a splitter with a 1.63 rating, is solid, but Chourio has consistently handled it with a lifetime batting average of .278. So, let's hope Chourio can connect and send the ball flying.
- Kyle Schwarber: The big fella will be playing his best ball in Cleveland, where he's currently batting a crisp .294 with a .973 OPS. Schwarber has yet to leave the yard since his last game, and today looks like the perfect opportunity to break out of that slump.
He faces Gavin Williams, who possesses below-average matchup ISO and ground ball rates – perfect conditions for a power hitter like Schwarber to drive the ball. Williams carries a 5.06 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He loves to throw fastballs, accounting for 53% of his pitches, making it our preferred pitch for Schwarber. The first baseman is batting .349 against fastballs this season with a 1.272 OPS and a 250 wRC+. So, with his stellar matchup against Williams, Schwarber seems like a strong contender to send the ball soaring over the fence.
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Let's Wrap This Up:
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Last Month: 100-160 (-5.00u)
Last Week: 25-50 (-9.00u)
- Jackson Chourio, at a top rating on Batters-Box.com, has a 21% homerun rate in games with a great road rating, making today a prime opportunity to get a homerun in the 973 match against Zack Littell, given Chourio's past success against sliders.
- Kyle Schwarber, with a crisp .294 batting average and .973 OPS in Cleveland, could end his slump today, as he faces Gavin Williams, who has below-average matchup ISO and ground ball rates, ideal for a power hitter like Schwarber.
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