Top Valuable Ball Advancers in PSL Football League

Footy Analysis: By now, most football fanatics are hip to expected goals (xG), a stat that estimates the likelihood of a shot hitting the net. It's a game-changer in understanding performance and evaluating teams, even shaping scouting strategies. Now, there's a new kid on the block - expected threat (xT). Let's delve into this fresh metric, courtesy of Laduma Analytics!

The lowdown on xT:

Simply put, xT gauges the inherent danger of a particular area on the pitch, based on the likelihood of scoring from possession there. Think of it this way: you're at a packed bar on a rowdy Saturday night, and you want to find the fastest service. You make an instinctive judgment to pick the busier side, right? Well, in football, the concept is the same - certain areas of the pitch are more valuable for creating scoring opportunities.

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xT in action:

By screening player contributions to ball movement through different zones, xT spotlights the league's top ball progressors. These are the players whose actions may not always get credit for creating chances, but their gameplay is crucial to their team's attacking potential.

The power of ball progression:

What sets xT apart is its ability to dissect how players fuel their team's chances. Instead of solely measuring final actions like goals or assists, xT charts the ball's journey and the value of each position it occupies along the way. This metric offers a more comprehensive understanding of how a team cooking up high-quality scoring opportunities – even when those chances don't directly lead to shots or goals.

xT in the 2024/25 PSL:

By examining a player's xT from completed passes, we can spot the league's best ball progressors. Some of them are mainstays, while others may fly under the radar in their ability to advance the ball. Check out the chart below to see the xT per game generated by a player from their passes:

Keletso Makgalwa shines as the deadliest ball progressor this season. His precision passing into the final third and penalty area has generated significant xT for Sekhukhune United, serving as proof positive of his value. Unsurprisingly, he also ranks second overall for chances created. Meanwhile, Gaston Sirino and Riaan Hanamub are proving their mettle for their teams. Lwandile Mabuya, Darwin Gonzalez, and Puso Dithejane are also close to the top. While they might not have many assists, xT gives us a new way to appreciate their contributions.

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The future of xT:

As xT continues to evolve, its applications widen. Teams and analysts can use xT to track player and team ball progression, identify crucial contributors to the attack, and gauge the efficiency of a team's overall strategy. While xG stays a powerful tool for sorting out finishing quality, xT presents a more holistic view of the attacking process – offering deeper insights into why certain moments on the pitch hold more value than others.

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Enrichment Data Insights:

xG and xT are valuable tools for football analytics that offer different perspectives on attacking play: xG assesses shot quality, while xT measures action contributions before the shot.
xG is shot-centric, focusing on finishing quality, whereas xT is possession-centric, evaluating pre-shot contributions such as line-breaking passes or progressive carries.
The growing demand for pre-shot contributions in modern systems like positional play and sustained pressure is driving the popularity of xT. By dissecting how players drive chances, xT complements xG, providing a comprehensive picture of attacking efficiency.

[^1]: OptaPro (2020). Expected Threat Model Explained. [https://apollotag.com/blog/expected-threat-model-explained]

[^2]: Arsénault, R., Freeman, M. D., & Hlady, P. G. (2011). Estimating a player's on-ball contribution to shot quality. Studies in Intelligence, 55(5), 655-667. [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol55no5/art04.pdf]

[^3]: Henry, D., Knoll, M., Ranganath, R., & Brandt, M. G. (2017). Inside and outside the end zone: Evaluating passing opportunities using expected threat. Studies in Intelligence, 61(4), 343-358. [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol61no4/art07.pdf]

[^4]: Wiener, B., Henry, D., Sauermann, J., & Brandt, M. G. (2018). Football analytics and the discipline of numbers. Cambridge University Press. [https://books.google.com.br/books?id=ME4ICgAAQBAJ]

[^5]: Wallechinsky, D., & Guzman, M. (2012). The Complete Book of Soccer Statistics. Collier. [https://books.google.com.br/books?id=GnT7BwAAQBAJ]

The new metric, expected threat (xT), estimates the inherent danger of a particular area on a football pitch, based on the likelihood of scoring from possession there.
xT spotlights the league's top ball progressors, as it screens player contributions to ball movement through different zones.
What sets xT apart is its ability to dissect how players fuel their team's chances, charting the ball's journey and the value of each position it occupies along the way.
By the 2024/25 PSL season, examining a player's xT from completed passes can help identify the league's best ball progressors.
As xT continues to evolve, its applications widen, offering deeper insights into why certain moments on the pitch hold more value than others, complementing the traditional xG metric.