Top Picks for Home Run Bets in MLB, April 5, 2025
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Let's dive into these irrepressible bets.
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Today's Top MLB Home Run Bets, May 5th
- Best Bet 1: Pete Alonso Home Run(+310) odds via BetOnline
- Best Bet 2: Cal Raleigh Home Run (+265) odds via BetOnline
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A Glimpse Behind the Curtain
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Last Month: 101-144-4 (+9.31u)
Last Week: 28-42 (+2.86u)
Mets vs Diamondbacks: Top Prop Bet
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Home Run(+310) odds via BetOnline
Can Pete Alonso extend his scorching streak?
Pete Alonso is one of two elite-rated Mets hitters in this matchup - the other being Juan Soto. I delve into Soto's home run prop as well, but Alonso's statistics align much better. When carrying an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Alonso hits home runs nearly 27 percent of the time. That's across a 78-game elite rating sample. On the road, those trends stay consistent with a 25 percent homer rate in 24 elite-rated games.
The Mets slugger faces a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson, a pitcher who heavily relies on his fastball, throwing it almost 60 percent of the time. This season, Alonso is batting .382 against heaters with a 1.100 OPS and a 217 wRC+. He's not just demolishing fastballs, though. Nelson's cutter, his top pitch, is also being clobbered. Alonso owns a .333 average, 1.253 OPS, and 220 wRC+ against cutters.
Extending Alonso's power stroke given the price and how well he stacks up against Nelson seems tough to resist.
Mariners vs Athletics: Top Prop Bet
Best Bet: Cal Raleigh Home Run (+265) odds via BetOnline
Could Cal Raleigh weave some magic against Luis Severino?
Known as the "Big Dumper," Raleigh enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. In 59 games with that elite tag, Raleigh has yielded home runs 25 percent of the time. His road statistics are even more mouthwatering - in 19 elite-rated road games, he's homered at a 36 percent clip.
Today, the Seattle catcher collides with Luis Severino, a pitcher who tends to struggle against elite hitters. According to Batters-Box.com, hitters with elite ratings are registering a hit off Severino more than 70 percent of the time. The veteran right-hander has only one pitch with a positive pitch value on FanGraphs - his sinker.
Circumstances are in Raleigh's favor. He feasts on sinkers. This season, he's smashing sinkers, batting over .400 against them, with a 1.267 OPS and a colossal 403 wRC+ on a 63-pitch sample. For his career, he boasts a .322 average, 1.067 OPS, and 204 wRC+ versus the pitch.
Backing Raleigh's home run prop seems difficult to shy away from with how well he aligns against Severino.
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Enrichment Data: Overall, Here are some key recommendations for May 5, 2025, based on current picks and odds:
Prominent Home Run Props
- Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) with odds ranging from +480 to +620 (versus unspecified opponent)[2][3]
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets) justified as a value pick, but odds are not fully detailed[5]
- Jorge Polanco (Mariners) with odds from +430 to +550 (matchup specifics not detailed, mentioned in multiple sources)[2][5]
- Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks), Matt Olson, Bobby Witt Jr., and James Wood were also noted as value picks, but details on odds and opponents are scarce in the provided outcomes[5].
- In today's MLB matchups, bet on Pete Alonso from the Mets for a home run, with odds of +310 via BetOnline, as he has a strong history of hitting home runs when given an elite rating on Batters-Box.com.
- Another good bet is Cal Raleigh from the Mariners for a home run, with odds of +265 via BetOnline, especially against pitcher Luis Severino who struggles against elite hitters.
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