Top MLB Home Run Wagers - Today's Forecasted Homerun Picks

Who's swinging for a home run today in the MLB? Check our top HR bets for today! Our experts analyze data from the top MLB betting sites to uncover the most lucrative HR prop bets.

We choose our best bets based on factors like stats, trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We break down our approach below, so you can build your own HR betting strategy.

If you just want predictions, check out our best home run picks for today (updated daily, just like our NRFI picks).

Top Home Run Predictions for Today, April 26

Top Picks to Hit a Home Run Today for April 26 (With Reasoning)

After reviewing the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we've selected the following best HR bets for April 26:

Anthony Santander (+400) - Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays aim for back-to-back victories over the Yankees in the Bronx! Another Guerrero Jr. blast gave them a 4-2 win last night at Yankee Stadium.

On Saturday, Anthony Santander might be next for the Blue Jays to go deep. Max Fried takes the mound with a formidable 1.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Despite this, Fried has surrendered two home runs, and Santander has prevailed against Yankees' starter in five at-bats.

Santander is batting .400 with a home run against Fried throughout his career. The former Oriole has smashed two long balls this season. While he's been inconsistent, expect the Blue Jays' offense to heat up, which could include a Santander homer.

Fried's history doesn't bode well against new Blue Jay, Santander, so consider him for your MLB home run bets today!

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Shohei Ohtani (+220) - Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers have been a bit rocky recently, including last night's loss to Paul Skenes and the Pirates! But expect their offense to wake up after a 3-0 loss.

Mitch Keller provides a more promising matchup for the Dodgers. Keller arrives at Dodger Stadium with a 4.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across five starts. He's given up consecutive home runs entering Saturday.

Keller has faced Ohtani in the past, with unfortunate results. Japanese star needed just eight at-bats versus Keller to hit two home run balls. This season, Ohtani has batted .250 with six homers.

However, expect Ohtani to explode tonight and connect for a home run. In short, consider him for your MLB HR props at +220.

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Freddie Freeman (+500) - Los Angeles Dodgers

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Besides Ohtani, Freddie Freeman boasts great value in the MLB home run betting markets! Freeman has caused significant damage against Keller historically.

Freeman, a member of Team Canada and World Series MVP, has batted an impressive .533 against Keller throughout his career. He has also knocked one home run and recorded three RBIs versus Keller this season.

The Dodgers' first baseman starts Saturday batting .269 with five home runs in 14 games. He's been one of the top offensive players for the Dodgers so far.

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With Freeman likely having an advantage over Keller, he's a top pick for MLB home runs at +500.

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How We Select the Top HR Picks of the Day?

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Selecting consistent MLB home runs day after day demands a strategic approach. We examine several factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.

Here's how we do that:

We always start with the basics - the individual player's hitting statistics that offer insights into their chances of hitting home runs. We analyze long-term data (e.g., career records and season-to-date), short-term trends (e.g., the player's current performance), and overall trends.

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Knowing both the big picture and the latest developments is crucial to find the best HR bets for any given day. Home run numbers are readily available from many sources, including the official MLB home run page.2. Individual statistics are critical, but pitchers are equally important. Check who's starting and evaluate possible pitchers involved, such as starters and relievers.

couple of weeks of data helps you understand the current pitcher's standing.3. The players' duels against each other offer valuable insights. Certain players excel against specific opponents and struggle against others. Knowing this can have a significant impact on home run bets for the day.

Exploring previous battles between teams or the particular pitcher and batter in question can reveal important trends that could affect the upcoming matchup.4. Every MLB ballpark has unique characteristics that impact home run rates. Dimensions, weather, and other factors vary from park to park. So, you should consider the ballpark's influence on home runs. We often look at the standings on OnlyHomers.com.

Once we have the park's details, we analyze the weather reports to help determine our home run bets for the day.5. To get the best betting value for daily home run predictions, we compare the odds across multiple betting sites and select the top price. This small difference in odds can translate into substantial returns in the long run.

We focus on a few reliable options instead of going to every leading betting site online. At the moment, we compare odds on Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.

Getting the Home Run Prop Bets

Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice - Bets > Player Props.
BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.

More Betting Picks from our website

Our team constantly searches for the most promising home run betting picks every day, including weekends. If you like our recommended bets, you'll enjoy our AI betting picks for every major US sport daily!

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If you prefer human analysis, check our blog section for detailed previews, odds, analysis, and predictions for numerous events: sports, politics, entertainment, esports, and more.

We also have numerous MLB picks and predictions, so feel free to check them out!

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Player Statistics and Matchups

Batter Performance: Experts assess a batter's production against particular pitchers, such as home run frequency and overall hitting stats.
Pitcher Performance: Pitching home run rate per nine innings (HR/9) is crucial in the matchup evaluation. Pitchers with a lower HR/9 are less favorable for home run bets.
Lineup Depth: Teams with strong hitters throughout the lineup are more likely to produce home runs.

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Environmental Conditions

Ballpark Factors: Some ballparks are known as hitter-friendly (e.g., Coors Field) or pitcher-friendly (e.g., Petco Park), affecting home run probabilities.
Weather Conditions: Wind direction, temperature, and humidity can impact the ball's travel distance, potentially increasing the likelihood of home runs.

Betting Market Dynamics

Odds Analysis: Experts examine the odds offered by sportsbooks to determine their implied probabilities. For example, a player with +200 odds implies a 33.3% chance of hitting a home run.
Value Hunting: Identifying undervalued or overvalued bets compared to the projected probabilities can yield value opportunities.

Strategic Betting Methods

Projection-Based Models: Experts may employ advanced statistical models to predict outcomes and estimate home run probabilities.
Round Robin and Parlays: Combining multiple bets can increase potential payouts while managing risk.

By blending these factors and strategies, experts refine their selections to maximize the potential for successful MLB home run bets.

1.Anthony Santander, with odds of +400, is a top HR bet for today based on his career success against Max Fried and recent form against the Yankees.

Shohei Ohtani, at +220, might be the better choice for HR prop bets today due to Mitch Keller's subpar performance against him in the past.
Freddie Freeman also presents good value for HR bets at +500, as he has historically excelled against Mitch Keller and is currently in good form.
Sports betting experts consider several factors when choosing the best MLB home run bets, including individual player statistics, pitcher performance, matchup analysis, environmental conditions, and betting market dynamics. By carefully analyzing these factors and the betting odds across various sportsbooks, experts strive to find the most profitable home run prop bets for each day.