Today's MLB Predictions: Top Picks by Greg Peterson for May 4th

Hot MLB Picks for Today, May 4:

Get on board with renowned baseball handicapper Greg Peterson as he shares his top MLB picks for Sunday, May 4.

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1:15 PM Eastern

New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Game One of Doubleheader

Meet the MLB debut of Mets starting pitcher Blade Tidwell, who has a 5.00 ERA this season at the minor league level. Throughout his career in the minors, he's averaged 4.7 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starter Erick Fedde, meanwhile, has only 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.68 ERA. However, he's done a solid job of keeping the ball in the park, only allowing 0.8 home runs per nine innings.

Picks: Cardinals Moneyline +115 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg's Handicap: Cardinals -104, Total 9.1)

1:35 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren is struggling with control, giving up 4.5 walks per nine innings and contributing to a 5.63 ERA. Tampa Bay Rays starter Taj Bradley has a 4.58 ERA while his strikeout rate has dropped to 7.4 per nine innings after posting 10 or more in the previous two seasons.

Pick: Rays Moneyline +158 (Greg's Handicap: Rays +127)

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack has a rough 5.60 ERA and has allowed three home runs in his last three starts. Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet has been dominant with a 2.05 ERA, but his 3.7 walks per nine innings can be concerning, especially considering a bullpen that ranks 17th in the league with a 4.05 ERA.

Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg's Handicapped Total: 8.6)

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson was torched for nine runs and five home runs in his first start of 2025 after posting a 4.24 ERA and allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings last year with the Cardinals. Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has been steady with a 3.48 ERA, 7.5 strikeouts, and 3.5 walks per nine innings, though he's supported by a lineup that ranks 28th in offense with just under 3.2 runs per game.

Picks: Royals Moneyline +112 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg's Handicap: Royals -108, Total 8.6)

1:40 PM Eastern

Oakland Athletics vs. Miami Marlins

Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has struggled in his first four outings with a 7.23 ERA, 5.3 walks, and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Athletics starter JP Sears owns a 4.79 FIP with 1.5 home runs per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen with a 4.40 ERA, while the Marlins rank 28th in team ERA at 5.13 entering Saturday.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline +118 (Greg's Handicap: Marlins -102)

2:05 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starter Ranger Suárez makes his season debut after posting a 3.46 ERA last year and allowing just 0.8 home runs per nine innings. However, his ERA after the All-Star Break is a red flag. Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been unlucky so far this year with a 6.06 ERA despite a solid 4.04 FIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg's Handicapped Total: 8.7)

2:10 PM Eastern

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Cubs lead MLB in runs per game, averaging over 6.1. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.52 ERA, but a 3.77 FIP and his 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings would be a career low. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has been lucky so far, posting a 2.77 ERA despite a 4.87 FIP. He has just 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is allowing 1.6 home runs per nine.

Picks: Brewers Moneyline -105 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg's Handicap: Brewers -116, Total 7.8)

Related Articles- MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets for May 5- MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for May 4- MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Sunday, May 4

Bonus Insights- Prioritizing underperforming starters and bullpen advantages, with additional value on multi-base hitter props (e.g., Alex Verdugo)- Dodgers' bullpen and Braves' pitching edge in Greg Peterson’s predictions- Dodgers vs. Marlins Run Line (-1.5 +100) (Greg's model rates this as a -132 handicap)- Yankees-Padres parlay recommendation by NBC Sports’ model- Modern MLB Betting Splits emphasizing starting pitcher performance and bullpen effectiveness

In the 1:15 PM Eastern game, the moneyline for the St. Louis Cardinals against the New York Mets offers lucky bettors an odds boost of +115, as per Greg Peterson's analysis, despite the Mets' debuting pitcher Blade Tidwell's career walk rates and Cardinals' starter Erick Fedde's solid home run control.
There's potential value in betting on the Tampa Bay Rays in their matchup against the New York Yankees at 1:35 PM Eastern, with the Rays moneyline at +158 (Greg's Handicap: Rays +127). Both starting pitchers are struggling with control, which could contribute to a high-scoring game.
The Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox matchup at 1:35 PM Eastern presents an opportunity for betting over 8 runs, according to Greg Peterson, as both starting pitchers have shown vulnerabilities and their associated bullpens rank among the league's bottom performers.
Betting on the Kansas City Royals moneyline at +112 in their game against the Baltimore Orioles at 1:40 PM Eastern looks attractive, given Greg Peterson's handicap (Royals -108), as Orioles starter Kyle Gibson has struggled in his season debut, while Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has been steady.
In the 1:40 PM Eastern contest between the Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins, the Marlins moneyline at +118 (Greg's Handicap: Marlins -102) could be a solid pick, as both starting pitchers have faced challenges early in the season. The Athletics' bullpen ranks 28th in team ERA, while the Marlins rank 28th in team ERA entering the day, providing additional value to this matchup.