Tinubu Will Outperform Jonathan in 2027, Carry Over 32 States, According to Abejide
In the political landscape of Nigeria, the 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be an exciting contest, with key figures like Bola Tinubu and Goodluck Jonathan potentially vying for the top position.
Leke Abejide, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Customs and Excise, recently embarked on travels across the North. During his journey, he noted that the people were happy and the roads and trains were safe. This, according to Abejide, is proof of continued support for President Tinubu.
Abejide also dismissed claims that Tinubu's popularity is waning, and believes that the political terrain favours the incumbent president. He predicts that Tinubu could win more than 32 states in such a contest. However, he suggests that Tinubu may lose Anambra and Abia states but could potentially win Ebonyi.
Regarding Goodluck Jonathan, the former president who completed one term before losing to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, there have been speculations about a possible 2027 presidential bid. Abejide, however, cautions against Jonathan's return to the presidential race.
Current forecasts using a “Four Horsemen” election prediction framework suggest that the ruling APC (All Progressives Congress) is likely to retain power. This is because among the four key indicators, only the presence of a strong third-party candidate coalition is identified. However, the potential candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan adds an element of unpredictability to the election outcome.
Analysts point to governance performance and political realignments as key factors influencing the race. While Tinubu faces criticism for underperformance in governance and security, his deep political acumen is acknowledged, and there is still belief that he could redirect his efforts to improve Nigeria’s situation if he adjusts his approach.
On the other hand, Goodluck Jonathan's potential impact remains speculative at this time. His return to the presidential race could "radically shake" the election dynamics, especially given the political negotiations and alliances in the northern regions of Nigeria. Other political figures like Peter Obi have also energized the youth voters and challenged the APC, contributing to a more complex multi-party contest.
In conclusion, while Tinubu is favored for re-election based on current electoral models and incumbency advantages, the potential candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan adds an element of unpredictability to the 2027 Nigerian presidential election outcome. Analysts urge close monitoring of political developments and potential alliances in the coming months.
[1] Source: The Conversation Africa [2] Source: Premium Times [3] Source: BBC Africa [5] Source: Vanguard Nigeria
- Leke Abejide, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Customs and Excise, believes that President Tinubu could win more than 32 states in the 2027 presidential election, despite suggests that he may lose Anambra and Abia states but could potentially win Ebonyi.
- The ruling APC (All Progressives Congress) is likely to retain power in the 2027 presidential election, according to current forecasts using a “Four Horsemen” election prediction framework, but the potential candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan adds an element of unpredictability to the election outcome.
- Analysts point to governance performance and political realignments as key factors influencing the 2027 Nigerian presidential race, with Tinubu facing criticism for underperformance in governance and security, but his deep political acumen is acknowledged.
- Regarding Goodluck Jonathan, who completed one term before losing to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, there have been speculations about a possible 2027 presidential bid, but Abejide cautions against Jonathan's return to the presidential race.
- Leke Abejide recently traveled across the North and noted that the people were happy and the roads and trains were safe, which he suggests is proof of continued support for President Tinubu.
- In the political landscape of Nigeria, other political figures like Peter Obi have also energized the youth voters and challenged the APC, contributing to a more complex multi-party contest in the 2027 presidential election.
