A Crunch Time for President Trump: Will 89 Trade Deals be Closed in 34 Days?
Time's Running Short for Trump: Less Than a Month Left to Finalize Multiple Trade Agreements
In a bold move, President Donald Trump has given trading partners until June 4 to submit their best offers for trade deals. Failing to reach agreements could lead to the reinstatement of heavy tariffs, starting July 9. With only 89 more deals to make, the economy's future hangs in the balance.
Multiple countries have already been in talks with the U.S. to dodge country-specific tariffs that Trump announced in April and later put on hold for 90 days. As the deadline nears, these "reciprocal" tariffs will resume if no deals are struck.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed at a press conference that the deadline is indeed approaching, and they expect beneficial deals to materialize [1]. Yet, this isn't the only tariff deadline on Trump's plate. On July 9, a 50% tariff will be imposed on goods from the European Union, while on August 12, a 90-day pause on 145% tariffs against China will expire.
Is it Possible to Achieve 90 Deals in Such a Short Timeframe?
Initially, Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro speculated the U.S. could potentially secure 90 deals within 90 days. However, as things stand, only one agreement has been signed – with Great Britain, a close ally, rather than a country targeted for steep tariffs [2].
According to trade experts, manufacturing such a large number of trade deals in such a short period is genuinely difficult, as negotiations are, by nature, slow and intricate. Historically, negotiations have typically taken more than a year to finalize [1].
Some experts are more optimistic about deals with India and Japan being signed before July. Deals with other nations are seen as less probable, according to betting sites [1].
Obstacles and Uncertainty Along the Way
Further complicating matters are the legal troubles surrounding U.S. tariffs. Last week, a federal court overturned many of the tariffs, only for an appeals court to allow them to proceed temporarily. If Trump ultimately loses the legal battle, the tariffs' future remains uncertain [1].
If the negotiations fail and the deadline is not extended, the consequences for the economy and household finances would be steep. With no deals in place, the full impact of Trump's proposed tariffs would be felt, leading to soaring import taxes.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 35% chance of a recession if the reciprocal tariffs are put into effect [3]. So, will President Trump manage to close the required number of trade deals in time to save the economy? Only time will tell.
Insights: While President Trump's ambitious tariff negotiations aim to reshape trade, they may face numerous obstacles, including slow and complex historical negotiation timelines, legal uncertainty, and skepticism from trade experts. With only a month left until the critical deadline, the odds appear slim for reaching 89 additional deals to secure the U.S. economic future. The challenges faced in negotiations suggest that achieving 90 trade deals within 90 days as suggested by Peter Navarro is highly improbable.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-trump-administration-aims-finalize-tentative-trade-deals-2022-05-18/[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-trade-adviser-navarro-says-us-would-do-90-deals-90-days-if-congress-allows-2022-04-29/[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-24/us-has-about-a-50-50-chance-of-a-recession-jpmorgan-says
- The ongoing trade negotiations under President Trump have sparked discussions about the possibility of his administration securing 90 trade deals within a short timeframe, which some experts find highly improbable, given the usual slow and complex nature of such negotiations.
- As the deadline for concluding many trade deals approaches, there is growing speculation that deals with India and Japan might be among the few that could be signed before July, while agreements with other nations are considered less likely according to betting sites.
- Amidst the obstacles faced in negotiations, there are concerns about the potential impact on the economy and household finances if the negotiations fail and the tariffs are implemented. Goldman Sachs has forecasted a 35% chance of a recession if the reciprocal tariffs are put into effect.
