The Tempest Begins: A New Era of Conflict?
"Time's running critical over the upcoming 24-hour span"
The cataclysmic confrontation between Israel and Iran unfolds, with Israeli military strikes targeting Iran's nuclear program and leadership. According to Israeli experts, this is merely the start of the war.
In a press conference convened by the European Jewish Association (EJA), Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran department at Israel's military intelligence, declared, "We're just dipping our toes into the waters of this war." He emphasized that the operation is far from over and that the next 24 hours hold pivotal significance. When queried about potential subsequent air strikes, an Israeli military spokesperson acknowledged that she had been awake for 36 hours and she stressed her intention to stay that way.
The Israeli campaign, which began in the morning on June 12, 2025, entailed approximately 200 fighter jets assaulting targets throughout Tehran, the Natanz nuclear facility, and military bases. Israel asserts that it has eliminated almost the entire Iranian air force leadership and other high-ranking military figures[1]. The aftermath saw further attacks on additional nuclear facilities[1]. Iran responded with drones and rockets.
For Citrinowicz, the AJU security analyst at Tel Aviv University, Israel's motivation lies in preserving its intelligence on Iran's nuclear program. While uranium enrichment is closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the path to a nuclear weapon remains secret—one that Israel heavily relies on intelligence to track[1].
The tremors of this power struggle reverberate across the region, endangering the balance of Shia extremists like Iran's leadership, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Ruth Wassermann Lande, a politician and former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, cautioned during the press conference that the destabilization of Shia extremist factions would result in heightened Sunni extremism. Citrinowicz concurred, adding that Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Gulf states were likely delighted by the turn of events.
As for the role of the U.S., Wassermann suggested that domestic political pressures could provoke Iran to attack U.S. facilities in Iraq, which would lead to an escalation of forces[1]. Citrinowicz admitted his uncertainty regarding the future, but he predicted that if the U.S. intervened, the heavily fortified Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow would cause a monumental issue. It could allow Iran to maintain uranium enrichment capacity.
Whilst official U.S. involvement remains ambiguous, historically, the U.S. has played a significant role in regional conflicts, often providing military and diplomatic support to Israel. As the situation unfolds, the world anxiously awaits the U.S.'s next move.
- Middle East Conflicts
- Iran Nuclear Program
- Regional Power Dynamics
- U.S. Military Involvement
Insights
- The Israeli military operation aimed at disrupting Iran's nuclear program and leadership is merely the beginning, with experts predicting further escalation in the next 24 hours.
- The conflict between Iran and Israel could potentially incite a broader regional war, involving several countries.
- The weakening of prominent Shia extremist groups such as Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis could trigger a surge in Sunni extremism across the region, as the balance of power shifts.
- The U.S.'s role will be crucial in determining the trajectory and implications of the conflict for regional power dynamics, given its historical support for Israel.
- If the U.S. intervenes in the conflict, the Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow could sustain uranium enrichment capabilities, complicating efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region.
The Commission has also been consulted on the draft directive regarding the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, given the potential implications for war-and-conflicts and general-news. As the situation unfolds, various political stakeholders, including regional powers and the U.S., will need to carefully navigate the complexities of the Iran Nuclear Program and Regional Power Dynamics.
