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Tightly Contested Election in Paraguay

On the coming Sunday, Paraguayans are scheduled to vote for a new president. The current indications from polls suggest a tight competition between right-wing conservative candidate Santiago Peña and his left-wing opponent, Efraín Alegre.

Tight Contest in Paraguay's Elections
Tight Contest in Paraguay's Elections

Tightly Contested Election in Paraguay

Paraguay held its much-anticipated presidential elections on [insert date] for a new head of state, vice-president, parliament, and regional governments. The race was between Santiago Peña from the Colorado Party and Efraín Alegre, backed by the Concertación coalition. Another notable candidate was the far-right Paraguayo "Payo" Cubas, who captured a significant portion of the vote as an anti-establishment option[1].

Santiago Peña, an economist and former finance minister, secured the Colorado Party’s nomination and won the election decisively, capturing nearly 43% of the vote[1][2]. Peña's main campaign platform included maintaining Paraguay's longstanding economic ties with Taiwan, fighting corruption, and addressing economic issues like unemployment and inflation. Since taking office in 2023, Peña has welcomed Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te to Paraguay, underlining his commitment to Taiwan relations[4].

Efraín Alegre, a lawyer and a three-time presidential candidate, ran on a platform advocating for shifting Paraguay’s diplomatic and economic ties away from Taiwan and towards China, highlighting the benefits of China's large market for Paraguayan exports such as beef and soybeans[1]. Alegre received about 27% of the vote, placing second in the election[1].

Paraguayo "Payo" Cubas, a far-right candidate, attracted voters dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment and gained unexpectedly strong support with nearly 23% of the vote[1]. Some argue that Cubas split the anti-Colorado vote, weakening Alegre's chances[1].

The elections consolidated the Colorado Party's dominance, with Peña's party also winning majorities in the national legislature and most governorships[1]. The president is elected by a simple majority vote for a five-year term without a runoff, and Peña's clear plurality secured his win decisively[3].

While corruption, the economy, and the country's diplomatic orientation between Taiwan and China were the main election issues, the wealth gap between wealthy landowners and the working population, as well as indigenous communities, remains a pressing issue in Paraguay. The current president, Benítez, of the Colorado Party, has been criticized for criminalizing certain indigenous population groups[5].

The elections marked the youngest democracy in Latin America, with approximately 4.8 million people participating[6]. The exception to the Colorado Party's hegemony was in 2008 when Fernando Lugo, a candidate from the Patriotic Alliance for Change coalition, was elected president but later ousted in a parliamentary coup in June 2012[7].

Both candidates are pro-U.S., but Alegre has announced plans to strengthen relations with China during his campaign[8]. The timing of the corruption scandal involving Vice President Hugo Velázquez and former President Horacio Cartes, leading to U.S. imposed economic sanctions, coincides with the most important stage of the elections, raising questions about external interference by the United States[9].

As the dust settles on the elections, it remains to be seen how Peña's victory will impact the political landscape of Paraguay and whether his promises of economic development and fighting corruption will come to fruition.

References: [1] BBC News (2023). Paraguay election: Santiago Peña wins presidential vote. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64280519 [2] Reuters (2023). Paraguay's Peña wins presidential election, consolidating Colorado Party's dominance. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/paraguays-pena-wins-presidential-election-consolidating-colorado-partys-dominance-2023-04-30/ [3] The Guardian (2023). Paraguay's Peña declared winner of presidential election. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/30/paraguays-pena-declared-winner-of-presidential-election [4] Taiwan Today (2023). Taiwan President Lai Ching-te visits Paraguay. [online] Available at: https://taiwanoday.com/news.php?unit=1&entry=183583 [5] Al Jazeera (2023). Paraguay's indigenous leader: 'We are being criminalised'. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/28/paraguays-indigenous-leader-we-are-being-criminalised [6] The Economist (2023). Paraguay's election: A young democracy grows up. [online] Available at: https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/04/30/paraguays-election-a-young-democracy-grows-up [7] The Guardian (2012). Paraguay's Fernando Lugo ousted in parliamentary coup. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/22/paraguay-fernando-lugo-ousted-coup [8] The Guardian (2023). Efraín Alegre: the Paraguayan presidential candidate who wants to stand up to Taiwan. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/23/efrain-alegre-the-paraguayan-presidential-candidate-who-wants-to-stand-up-to-taiwan [9] The New York Times (2023). Paraguay's Elections Are Testing Its Relationship With the U.S. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/world/americas/paraguay-election-us-corruption-sanctions.html

In the realm of policy-and-legislation, Santiago Peña, as the newly elected president of Paraguay, might implement policies focusing on maintaining Paraguay's economic ties with Taiwan, fighting corruption, and addressing economic issues like unemployment and inflation. On the other hand, general-news outlets report that Efraín Alegre, who came in second in the elections, had a platform advocating for shifting Paraguay’s diplomatic and economic ties away from Taiwan and towards China. These shifting alliances could have far-reaching implications for war-and-conflicts, particularly in relation to China's regional interests.

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