Tight Races in Canada's Federal Election: Winning Margins Lower Than 40 Votes in Two Constituencies
In the closely contested 2025 Canadian federal election, several ridings were won by a hair’s breadth, with some decided by just a handful of votes. As of Tuesday night, no less than nine candidates had managed to clinch their seats by fewer than 500 votes. Two ridings were even closer, decided by a measly 40 votes and 12 votes, respectively. With final votes still being tallied and several of these tight races likely to be subject to judicial recounts, every vote truly matters.
Terra Nova-The Peninsulas, N.L.
In this Newfoundland riding, Anthony Germain held on to his Liberal seat with a mere 12 more votes than his Conservative rival Jonathan Rowe. Given the razor-thin margin, a judicial recount is definitely in the cards.
Terrebonne, Que.
A similarly tight contest unfolded in Terrebonne, Quebec, where Liberal challenger Tatiana Auguste narrowly edged out Bloc Quebecois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by just 35 votes. A judicial recount is expected here too.
Nunavut
NDP MP Lori Idlout barely managed to hold on to her seat in Nunavut, emerging victorious by only 77 votes over Liberal candidate Kilikvak Kabloona in a closely fought three-way race that also included the Conservatives. A judicial recount is likely.
Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, Ont.
Kathy Borrelli took the victory in this Ontario riding by beating her Liberal incumbent Irek Kusmierczyk by 233 votes.
Milton East-Halton Hills South, Ont.
Conservative challenger Parm Gill flipped this Ontario seat from Liberal incumbent Kristina Tesser Derksen by a margin of 298 votes, having previously served as a Conservative MP from 2011 to 2015 and as an Ontario MPP between 2018 and 2024.
Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.
The NDP barely clung to this Vancouver seat, with incumbent Don Davies besting Liberal challenger Amy Gill by 310 votes.
Brampton Centre, Ont.
Amandeep Sodhi, a political newcomer, claimed this Ontario seat for the Liberals by winning over Conservative challenger Taran Chahal by 340 votes.
Kitchener Centre, Ont.
A change in the Green Party's fortunes saw the loss of this key Ontario riding, where Conservative challenger Kelly DeRidder beat incumbent Mike Morrice by 358 votes.
Miramichi-Grand Lake, N.B.
Former provincial MLA Mike Dawson secured this New Brunswick seat for the Conservatives with 394 more votes than Liberal challenger Lisa Harris.
What's a judicial recount?
Judicial recounts can occur automatically in incredibly close races or after an application when there are errors or irregularities. Automatic judicial recounts are required if the margin separating the first- and second-place candidates is less than one one-thousandth of the total number of votes cast in the riding. For example, if 50,000 ballots were cast in a riding, a judicial recount would need to occur if the margin of victory was less than 50 votes. These recounts involve judicial oversight and follow strict criteria to assess validity, such as marking clarity, compliance with secrecy, and procedural integrity. Spoiled or rejected ballots may be re-examined if they were improperly excluded during the initial count.
In summary, the 2025 Canadian federal election saw numerous ridings being decided by razor-thin margins and subject to possible judicial recounts. As every vote matters in tight races, the stakes are high, and the results could change even as final votes are tallied.
- In the riding of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas, Newfoundland, Liberal candidate Anthony Germain won by a mere 12 votes over his Conservative rival, with a judicial recount likely due to the close contest.
- In Terrebonne, Quebec, the Liberal challenger Tatiana Auguste narrowly edged out the Bloc Quebecois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by just 35 votes, and a judicial recount is expected.
- In Nunavut, NDP MP Lori Idlout barely maintained her seat with 77 votes more than the Liberal candidate, and a judicial recount is likely due to the tight three-way race.
- In the Ontario riding of Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, Kathy Borrelli claimed victory by beating the incumbent by 233 votes.
- In the Ontario riding of Milton East-Halton Hills South, Conservative challenger Parm Gill flipped the seat from Liberal incumbent Kristina Tesser Derksen by a margin of 298 votes, after serving as a Conservative MP and Ontario MPP in the past. InMiramichi-Grand Lake, New Brunswick, the Conservatives won with 394 more votes than the Liberal challenger, automatic judicial recounts being required if the margin of victory is less than one one-thousandth of the total number of votes cast.
