Tight Race Predicted in Eastern Iowa Congressional Election by Political Prognosticator
In the upcoming 2026 U.S. House election, Iowa's 1st Congressional District is gearing up for a highly competitive race, expected to be one of the most contested in the country. The main contenders are Democrat Christina Bohannan and incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
Bohannan, who narrowly lost to Miller-Meeks in 2022, has announced her 2026 campaign to challenge Miller-Meeks once more. Bohannan aims to build on her previous campaign efforts and relationships within the district, seeking to secure a victory in the rematch.
Key issues in this race centre around contrasting priorities. Bohannan's platform emphasises prioritising Iowans over corporate interests. She criticises Miller-Meeks for accepting over $4 million from corporate special interests and accuses her of voting in favour of cuts to Medicaid and Social Security, as well as enabling billionaire influence in politics.
Bohannan emphasises addressing the needs of people from all walks of life and aims to counteract partisan politics with a focus on Iowa-first policies. Miller-Meeks, a three-term incumbent, is framed by Bohannan as someone who has sided with corporate and special interest agendas rather than local constituents' priorities.
The race's competitiveness is highlighted by observers, placing it among the more closely watched contests nationally. The Cook Political Report and other key race rating sources have not yet designated a definitive lean for this district in 2026, signalling an open and competitive environment.
Bohannan has stated that she will prioritise public safety and secure the border in Congress. In 2022, Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan by 6.7 percentage points, 52.6 to 45.9 percent. Miller-Meeks voted for Jordan on the first ballot for speaker of the U.S. House, but subsequently voted against him.
The district has a history of close elections, especially in presidential election years. The race for Southeast Iowa's U.S. House seat is now considered a "Toss-up" by the political handicapper Inside Elections.
Former president Donald Trump won the district in the 2020 presidential race. Miller-Meeks won in 2020 by just six votes after months of recounts, defeating Democrat Rita Hart. Miller-Meeks has since faced criticism for her ties to corporate interests and her voting record on issues such as Medicaid, Social Security, and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Bohannan and the campaign arm of House Democrats have attacked Miller-Meeks for taking thousands from insulin manufacturer Eli Lilly and other pharmaceutical companies and voting against the Inflation Reduction Act and its insulin cap. In response, Miller-Meeks released an ad detailing her support of legislation to cap the price of insulin and make health care more affordable.
Bohannan's campaign responded with an ad highlighting endorsements from Iowa law enforcement. The Congressional Leadership Fund also released an ad questioning Bohannan's support of law enforcement.
Six candidates running for legislative seats representing parts of Johnson County have been invited to share their ideas and priorities during an Oct. 7 forum, hosted by the League of Women Voters of Johnson County. The forum will provide an opportunity for voters to learn more about the candidates and their positions on key issues.
As the race heats up, both candidates are working to secure votes and build support within the district. The 2026 election in Iowa's 1st Congressional District is shaping up to be a close and hard-fought contest.
In the lead-up to the 2026 U.S. House election, the policy-and-legislation stance of the candidates, particularly Christina Bohannan and incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, is a key point of discussion, with Bohannan advocating for Iowa-first priorities and criticizing Miller-Meeks for her association with corporate interests. The politics surrounding this race in Iowa's 1st Congressional District are garnering nationwide attention, as the upcoming contest is considered one of the more closely watched general-news events in the country.
