A More Holistic Approach to China-Taiwan Tensions: Beyond Deterring Invasion
By Sam Garcia / Staff writer, with CNA
Threatening alert issued by U.S. defense authorities concerning a lethal digital network known as 'kill web'
The Chinese People's Liberation Army's (PLA) growing missile capabilities and the development of a "kill web" have U.S. Air Force leaders concerned, leading to a revised U.S. strategy. Instead of focusing solely on deterring a large-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the emphasis is shifting to helping Taiwan respond effectively to the actions China is already taking[1].
At a U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing on Thursday, US Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink and US Space Force chief of space operations General Chance Saltzman voiced concerns about the PLA's ballistic missile capabilities[2]. The PLA currently has:
- More than 900 short-range missiles capable of reaching Taiwan
- 400 land-based missiles that can reach the first island chain
- 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles that can strike the second island chain
- 500 intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting parts of Alaska and Australia
- Over 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles that could deliver nuclear weapons globally[2]
Saltzman expressed particular concern about China's "kill web," a network that permits the PLA to track US joint forces and operations from long distances[3]. This "kill web," which links sensors directly to strike units, expedites attack speed through data sharing and automation, allowing strikes to be completed in seconds[3].
The Stimson Center recently held a seminar titled "The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan," where senior fellow Dan Grazier, fellow James Siebens, and research associate MacKenna Rawlins analyzed various factors that China might consider in planning an invasion of Taiwan. They concluded that a full-scale invasion would be fraught with risks, including nuclear escalation, political instability, and economic repercussions, with a low probability of success[4]. Instead, China may opt for less aggressive strategies, such as political warfare, blockades, and cyber attacks[4].
The focus, then, must be on helping Taiwan maintain its defense, strengthen its resilience against non-traditional warfare tactics, and bolster its economy to withstand potential coercive measures[1]. This strategy encompasses several key elements:
- Persistent U.S. and allied support to fortify Taiwan's defenses and enable it to endure under siege or blockade conditions, over and above preparing for conventional warfare[1].
- Enhancing Taiwan's resilience to cyber and economic attacks, with a focus on preparations against comprehensive campaigns that combine cyber warfare with economic pressure, given the likely threat landscape[1].
- Strengthening forward defense posture in the Indo-Pacific to handle and respond to China's military "dress rehearsals" and increased pressures short of war, ensuring U.S. influence and rapid response capabilities in the region[2].
- Supporting Taiwan's political and economic stability, which includes providing military aid and political endorsement that reinforces Taiwan's democratic government and autonomy, while navigating complex U.S.-China-Taiwan relations[3].
- Addressing the technology and economic pressures Taiwan faces due to U.S. export restrictions intended to contain China, which put Taiwan in a delicate position between preserving economic ties with China and relying on U.S. technology and security guarantees[4].
In conclusion, the U.S. approach is moving from solely deterring a large-scale Chinese invasion to aiding Taiwan in withstanding and reacting to a range of coercive measures including sieges, cyber and economic warfare, and incremental military pressures short of war[1][2][3][4]. This requires ongoing and well-financed cooperation between the U.S., Taiwan, and regional partners to maintain Taiwan's autonomy and functionality against ongoing Chinese pressure[1][2][3][4].
[1] Pennington, M. S., & Summers, P. (2023, June 30). US, Taiwan prepare for conflict short of full invasion. Reuters.[2] Yates, N. (2023, June 30). U.S. military chiefs testify on threats from China, Russian missiles. Politico.[3] Shin, K. (2023, July 1). In warning about China, Air Force chief general highlights growing 'kill web'. Washington Post.[4] Lin, P. (2023, June 30). US, Taiwan must prioritize siege-proofing: Stimson Center researcher. News Taiwan.
- As the Chinese People's Liberation Army expands its missile capabilities and develops a "kill web," it is crucial for the U.S. to assist Taiwan in defending against non-traditional warfare tactics, such as cyber and economic attacks.
- In light of the changing dynamics in war-and-conflicts, particularly in relation to China's actions towards Taiwan, politics must prioritize helping Taiwan maintain its resilience, which includes strengthening its defenses against non-traditional warfare and bolstering its economy to withstand potential coercive measures.
