Thoroughbred Racing at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day, as per Tuley's Take
Revised Article:
Yo, folks! It's the big weekend here at Tuley's Takes HQ, and we can't wait for the Kentucky Derby action. But first, we've got Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs, with an undercard that's said to be chalky, but hey, that's where we find some juicy longshots! So let's dive into a few races before the main event:
Oaks Day: A Maiden's (and Stallions') Affair
Kentucky Oaks Day is all about the ladies, right? Well, we kick things off with a boys-only race.
Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2, $750,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:42 p.m. ET
My Take: Last year, I had a future-book ticket on Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness, but he ended up fading to 15th. After winning the Saratoga's Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Grade 1 Travers, and finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Classic, he's here as a worthy favorite. But remember, his only clunker was at this very track. This six-horse field might scare some away from the longshots, but don't be fooled. The public overbetting these favorites is where we find our value. I'm going with #1 Katonah (20-1). He struggled in the Dubai World Cup, but he fits the race and the pace should be to his advantage if he can close like his January win in the San Pasqual at Santa Anita. Let's box an exacta with #2 Locked, who closed to win the Santa Anita Handicap.
Fillies Taking Center Stage
LaTroeinne Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:23 p.m. ET
My Take: Defending Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna is the odds-on 2-5 morning-line favorite, but I'm not afraid to fade her, especially with a 70% chance of rain at Churchill on Friday. We're looking at a late runner, so betting on #3 Literate (30-1) could be the pick of the day.
Eight Belles Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:07 p.m. ET
My Take: We don't have a heavy favorite, which is perfect for us. We're looking for a speed horse to steal this seven-furlong race on the lead, and I think #8 Blue Fire (12-1) is the gal to beat. She's been slowly brought along by trainer Steven Asmussen, and all her wins are wire-to-wire. If she holds her form, she'll be tough to beat even at double-digit odds.
The Main Event: The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1, $1.5 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:51 p.m. ET
With an undefeated 6-for-6 lifetime record, Good Cheer is the deserving 6-5 morning-line favorite. She's also 3-for-3 at Churchill, including a 17-length romp in her lone race over a sloppy track. However, she hasn't been tested at the mile and an eighth distance, and maybe the outside draw could be a concern. We think #9 Tenma (12-1) could be an excellent overlay. She's trained by Bob Baffert and has the same stalking trip as Good Cheer, making her a solid bet at much better odds. An intriguing longer shot is #3 Fondly (20-1) with superjock Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons for trainer Graham Motion. Let's be real – these fillies are fighting for more than just the roses on Kentucky Oaks Day.
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Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes: Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs
"The longshots might shine in the Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2, $750,000) on Kentucky Oaks Day, as the public overbetting favorites could present value for bets. I'm considering #1 Katonah (20-1) due to his potential pace advantage and January win at Santa Anita.
In the LaTroeinne Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million), defending Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna is the favorite, but #3 Literate (30-1) could be the pick of the day, especially with the potential rain at Churchill on Friday."
