Thoroughbred Race Highlights: Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs

Thoroughbred Race Highlights: Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs – Tuley's Analysis and Predictions

Twitter, Facebook, Email## Tuley's Tactical Take: Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs:

We're hyped for Kentucky Derby weekend with our faithful VSiN subscribers crushing it on the Derby Betting Guide. But let's not overlook Friday's Kentucky Oaks and an undercard that some folks reckon is simply chalky. Some of my best days on the track have come when the mob over-wagers these faves, so let's dive into a few races leading up to the big showdown.

Oaks Day is all about the fillies and mares, but it kicks off with a race for the boys.

Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2, $750,000)

Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:42 p.m. ET

Tuley's Pick: Last year, I had a tasty future-book ticket on Kentucky Derby fave Fierciness, but unfortunatelt he flopped to a 15th-place finish. He then went on to win Saratoga's two big stakes for 3-year-olds, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and the Grade 1 Travers, before finishing second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic. This is his first start as a 4-year-old and is a worthy favorite, but I'm not afraid to sidestep him, especially considering his lone clunker of his career was here at the track.

This is a small six-horse field, a terrifying prospect for many bettors, but we often find great value in these situations when the public stays away from the longshots (math says it's easier to hit one in a small field than a larger one). Apart from Fierceness, this field is loaded with colts that will want to lead or set a fast pace, which should play into the hands of a late-running powerhouse. It's #1 Katonah (20-1) for me, a horse that I believe is being overlooked following his 10th-place finish in the Dubai World Cup. He fits the bill otherwise and the pace should work in his favor if he can shut it down like his January win in the Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita.

Since I'm looking at horses with a finish-line sprint, I'll also box an exacta with #2 Locked, who closed to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March.

Plays: #1 Katonah to Win and Place; Exacta Box 1 and 2.

LaTroeinne Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:23 p.m. ET

Tuley's Pick: Defending Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna is the hot 2-5 favorite in the LaTroeinne for fillies and mares, 4 years old and up. She has also crushed in both her races this year, but I'm no stranger to fading favorites, especially with a 70% chance of rain at Churchill on Friday. That usually evens the playing field for the underdogs (though Thorpedo Anna has thrived on wet and sloppy tracks in her career). Once again, we're looking for a closer and settling on #3 Literate (30-1). She's jumping to a much tougher class, but once again she fits the race profile.

Plays: #3 Literate to Win and Place.

Eight Belles Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)

Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:07 p.m. ET

Tuley's Pick: There's no heavy favorite in this race for 3-year-old fillies, but that doesn't scare us off. Unlike the last two races, I'm looking for a speed horse to dominate this seven-furlong race off the pace and think I may have found her in #8 Blue Fire (12-1). She's been slowly introduced to racing by top trainer Steven Asmussen and has won four of five, but even though none of those victories were graded-stakes wins, I don't see this as a significant step up in competition, as there's a lot of green horses in this field, too. All her wins have been wire-to-wire, so I believe her chances are better than the double digits being offered here, though I'm concerned that #4 Whatintheliteral (30-1) might take her out of contention if she applies pressure early on. But it's worth the gamble.

Plays: #8 Blue Fire to Win and Place.

Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1, $1.5 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:51 p.m. ET

Good Cheer is an unbeaten 6-for-6 lifetime and the clear 6-5 favorite as she's also 3-for-3 at Churchill, including a 17-length annihilation in her sole race on a wet surface. However, she's yet to be truly tested at the mile and an eighth distance, and the outside draw could potentially be a hurdle, though not overly concerning with her off-the-pace running style. With such a strong favorite, we think we can find some value in the 14-horse field.

The scratch of #8 Five 5 will diminish the early pace, so that's another reason not to chase deep closers. An intriguing long shot is #3 Fondly (20-1) with star jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle for trainer Graham Motion. She's only raced twice at minor tracks, but she should be able to stalk the early pace and has every right to improve as a young 3-year-old.

Plays: #9 Tenma to Win and Place. #3 Fondly to Win at 20-1. Exacta box with 3-9-11.

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Tuley's Tactical Take: Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs

The Kentucky Oaks, a race for fillies and mares on Kentucky Derby weekend, might be perceived as 'chalky' by some, but Tuley sees opportunities for value betting.
In the Alysheba Stakes, Tuley is avoiding the favorite Fierceness and instead bets on #1 Katonah, who he believes is being overlooked following a 10th-place finish in the Dubai World Cup.
In the LaTroeinne Stakes, Tuley picks #3 Literate at 30-1, a horse that fits the race profile and may benefit from potential rainy conditions that could even the playing field for underdogs.
In the Eight Belles Stakes, Tuley bets on #8 Blue Fire at 12-1, a horse with a perfect win-to-loss ratio who he believes can dominate with her wire-to-wire running style.
In the Kentucky Oaks, Tuley suggests betting on #9 Tenma at 12-1, who he believes is a solid overlay, and #3 Fondly at 20-1, a young horse with star jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. that could improve significantly in the stretch at long odds.