Thoroughbred Race Analysis: Black-Eycted Susan Stakes Event at Pimlico Racing Venue
Trashing the Triple Crown blues, we're back with the Tuley's Takes take on Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Day at Pimlico! The Kentucky Derby's chalky result didn't impress, and Sovereign skipping the Preakness left us in the dumps. But hell, we're not here to whine about the Triple Crown, we're here to wage on it!
Let's focus on the exciting days ahead, starting with Black-Eyed Susan Day on Friday. Our aim game is to find some live price plays on the BES card. On Friday, we'll post our Preakness "takes" and the undercard.
Miss Preakness Stakes (Grade 3, $150,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 10, 4:07 p.m. ET
Tuley's Take: Buckle up for the Miss Preakness, a six-furlong sprint race for 3-year-old fillies. Being a speed-favoring track and a competitive field with a lotta speed, front-runners seem a no-brainer. But I'm leaning on the closers this time around.
I'm looking at #3 High Paf, a laid-back filly with a perfect 2-for-2 record, still got room to grow. She's been smoking it off the pace here in Maryland, even though those races were at Laurel Park. Over at 12-1, I see this underdog outrunning her odds and giving us a shot coming down the stretch at the upset.
Wagers: #3 High Paf to Win (and Place as long it's double-digit odds).
Pimlico Special (Grade 3, $250,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 12, 5:10 p.m. ET
Tuley's Take: Last year's Pimlico Special winner Pyrenees won't return to defend his title after being scratched. Star of Wonder and Phileas Fogg are now set to battle for favoritism. But the scratch leaves some space for an upset, and I've got my eyes on the gelding, #4 Awesome Aaron, to ride the route at a mile and a sixteenth.
While #3 Encino is expected to be firing for the front, I think Awesome Aaron has the better odds at 12-1 compared to Encino's 6-1. I'm only betting Win on Awesome Aaron, but I like to wheel two horses like this in a Trifecta to boost our payout. A tri wheel for #3 and #4 with ALL, plus #3 and #4 with ALL with #3 and #4, ain't a bad plan.
Wagers: #4 Awesome Aaron to Win (Place if double-digit odds) and Trifecta Wheel on 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL plus 3,4 with ALL with 3,4.
Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Grade 2, $300,000)
Pimlico Race Course, Race 13, 5:44 p.m. ET
Tuley's Take: This race won't feature any runners from the Kentucky Oaks, so there’s no superstar filly on the card. But it's a competitive field nonetheless. There's no solid speed-burner here, so I'm taking a chance on #1 Liam in the Dust to land the lead from the rail and try to wire the field. She ran second to Paris Lily the first time she ran with Lasix. Horses often excel their first time on the diuretic, but sometimes it takes another race for them to fully grasp the benefits, so we could see that pushing her to the winner's circle.
Wagers: #1 Liam in the Dust to Win.
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In the realm of sports betting, the odds for #3 High Paf in the Miss Preakness Stakes are compelling, with her 12-1 odds suggesting an underdog that could outrun her price tag. Furthermore, in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, the potential of #1 Liam in the Dust taking the lead from the rail and wiring the field is a tempting prospect, making her an interesting bet to win.
