This weekend, Belgium faces the repercussions of a "cold dip" or "polar dip," with yellow or potentially orange weather alerts possible.
Over the weekend, a change in the weather is expected for Belgium, particularly in the south-east and potentially the centre, as a result of a polar stall and a high-altitude depression.
The peak of activity is predicted to occur in the evening and at night, with a "cold drop" or "polar stall" currently located over Spain causing the weather activity. This phenomenon is isolated from the rest of the general atmospheric circulation and moves slowly, leading to significant precipitation and potentially flooding.
The air masses that will pass over the Mediterranean will be more loaded with water vapour, contributing to the intensity of the precipitation in Belgium. The demarcation line separating warm and cold air masses is currently extending to Spain, further enhancing the weather activity.
On Friday afternoon, sunny weather with hot temperatures is expected, but with the Ardennes region cooler at around 24-25°C. A partly cloudy evening will turn into low clouds and mist or fog for many areas overnight, sparing mainly the east and south (the Ardennes area) from these effects.
Saturday morning is forecasted to be grey and overcast nationwide except in the south (southeast), then clearing spells return in the afternoon but with notably cooler maximum temperatures. Sunday also starts grey, clearing up later except in the north.
Metrologist Fabian Debal considers this episode potentially problematic for France and the Benelux, with the region south of the Sambre and Meuse valley expected to be particularly affected. Precipitation in the south-eastern provinces is expected to be more significant than in the central regions.
In some places in Belgium, the total precipitation for the episode (including Sunday evening) could reach 80 L/m2, a significant amount compared to the usual 78.2 L/m2 that falls for the whole month of June in Uccle. The upcoming weather activity is expected to mainly affect the south-east of Belgium, with a possibility that it could spill over into the centre, including Hainaut, the two Brabants, and Limburg.
However, no indications of storms or severe weather impacting the south-east were noted in the sources. The forecast emphasizes cooler temperatures and some cloudiness or fog, modulated by the presence of the polar stall and depression at altitude. Thus, expect cooler, mostly grey and partly clearing conditions in south-east Belgium and moderate temperatures in the centre over the weekend.
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