Modern-Day Conflicts: Evolved, Intense, and Enduring
Today's conflicts are becoming more complex, intense, and challenging to resolve, leading to prolonged durations. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in London, acknowledges this trend of intractability, with the average conflict duration extending beyond 30 years compared to less than 20 years in the early 1990s.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict exemplifies this elusive predicament. Despite efforts for peace, the country's reconstruction remains dependent on security guarantees for Kiev, which remains an elusive goal. This diplomatic and military stalemate points towards a potentially prolonged conflict. Furthermore, worldwide, violent events are increasing in frequency.
Elements Influencing Conflict Duration
Various elements contribute to the escalation of conflict intensity and unsolvability, such as:
- Non-state armed groups exerting power as both conflict parties and political actors, due to the decline in state legitimacy.
- The global intrusion of external forces into internal conflicts, leading to escalation.
- Increased competition between established, emerging, and revisionist powers, causing democracies to retreat and political fragmentation to ensue.
Modifying Tactics in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict
In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has adapted its tactics, with a focus on infantry-led assaults to overcome operational challenges. This could influence the duration of the conflict. Global economic shifts and geopolitical threats are also impacting conflict strategies, altering the security landscape.
Although the IISS does not explicitly discuss average conflict durations, the available data suggests that multiple interconnected factors contribute to persistent and intricate conflicts. These factors include conflicts' multifaceted nature, exploitation of natural resources, and influence of external actors.
Details of Influencing Factors
Non-state armed groups can protract and intensify conflicts through: - Expanding territorial control: These groups seek to preserve their areas, making conflict resolution urgent and challenging. - Involvement in criminal activities: Engagement in illicit activities like drug trafficking provides resources for ongoing operations and recruitment. - Obstruction of humanitarian aid: Restricting aid exacerbates humanitarian crises, making it tougher for relief organizations to intervene effectively.
International involvement can prolong and intensify conflicts through: - External intervention: Neighboring countries or global powers may intervene directly or indirectly, adding fuel to the fire. - Proxy wars: Foreign powers may support conflicting sides, leading to intensified and protracted conflicts with multiple actors and agendas.
Competition among global powers can contribute to conflicting durations and intensities through: - Sanctions and counter-sanctions: A cycle of escalation ensues when one country imposes sanctions, and the other retaliates with sanctions of its own. - Operation of guerilla financial networks: These networks, involving a mix of state, non-state, and quasi-state actors, support armed groups by providing funds through complex operations within the global financial system.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, these factors impact the conflict's complexity and intensity: - Non-state actors: Influential non-state actors, such as separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, contribute to the intricate nature of the conflict. - Internationalization: Intervention from external powers like the US, EU, and Russia, further complicates the conflict and prolongs its duration. - Power competition: Geopolitical competition between Russia and the West fuels escalation, with each side imposing sanctions and engaging in military and diplomatic actions, extending the conflict.
