The United States skips the most significant climate conference in a decade, potentially securing a win for China.
In the global race to combat climate change, China is accelerating its clean energy ambitions while the US appears to be taking a step back.
China is currently building 510 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and wind capacity, adding to the 1,400 gigawatts already online. This ambitious expansion places China at the forefront of the global energy transition, a shift that is crucial to meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.
However, China's role as the world's most-polluting country means its climate actions significantly impact the planet's climate trajectory. The country has a history of setting weak targets for itself regarding climate pollution and remains wedded to coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Yet, China has shown a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering in terms of climate pollution targets.
At the upcoming COP30, China is expected to submit updated national climate plans (NDCs) that cover all economic sectors and greenhouse gases through 2035. These plans will emphasize energy transition, methane emissions management, carbon markets, and green technologies. While the recent EU-China joint statement notably did not mention coal explicitly, experts anticipate a high single-digit or a low double-digit figure for pollution cuts from China.
In the context of the US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and not clearly committing to participate in COP30 negotiations, China and the European Union have pledged joint leadership to drive a global just transition and advance multilateral climate governance. This cooperation is seen as critical to maintaining global momentum on climate change, with experts highlighting that stronger leadership from China and the EU is needed to stabilize climate diplomacy amid US retreat.
China's clean-energy exports and investments are also contributing to emissions reductions in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, helping cut annual emissions there by around 3% per year. The combination of China’s domestic emission targets and its international technology support positions it to influence global emissions trends despite the US absence.
The Biden administration had proposed an ambitious US target of a 61-66% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, but this is unlikely to be achieved under the Trump administration. The US withdrawal from COP30 may advance China's global climate leadership while easing the pressure on Beijing to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels.
Harjeet Singh, a climate advocate, has stated that the US is abandoning its responsibilities in the midst of a planetary emergency. The elimination of the State Department's Office of Global Change leaves the US with no official presence at COP30, the annual UN climate talks in Belém, Brazil, in November. This absence may derail climate ambition, according to experts.
Despite China's progress, its target for reducing climate pollution is the most consequential for the climate, according to experts. Independent analysis shows that China's climate pollution may have already peaked five years ahead of schedule. As the world watches, China continues to operate power plants that run on coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, while the US is making a hard turn back toward fossil fuels.
In conclusion, China's updated NDCs and EU-China cooperation at COP30 aim to partially fill the leadership gap left by the US, potentially stabilizing global climate efforts and advancing the energy transition needed to meet Paris goals. However, the ambition of these commitments and their implementation will be crucial in determining if the global temperature rise can be kept within safer limits. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that the country will work with others to respond to climate change and promote the global green and low-carbon transformation process.
- The ambitious expansion of China's utility-scale solar and wind capacity in its clean energy ambitions, as well as its expected updated national climate plans at COP30, positions it to play a significant role in the global energy transition and climate-change policies.
- The ongoing collaboration between China and the European Union in driving a global just transition and advancing multilateral climate governance is crucial, as it mitigates the impact of the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the lack of US participation in COP30.
- While China has shown a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering in terms of climate pollution targets, its progress in clean energy and domestic emission targets, combined with its international technology support, can significantly influence global emissions trends.
