Shifting Trade Winds: Navigating Alternative Routes Beyond Russia
The struggle for Central Asia's transportation corridors: Who will control the modern Silk Roads?
As Europe searches for trade routes that skirt Russia, a new battleground has emerged – Central Asia and the Caucasus. These strategically positioned regions are now positioning themselves as key transit hubs amidst global trade shifts.
Since 2022, Europe has been on the lookout for alternative trade routes to avoid Russia, and this significantly focuses attention on the geopolitically important location of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Countries such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Turkmenistan are diving headfirst into infrastructure development projects, including railways, highways, and ports, in a bid to attract east-west trade flows.
While some of these nations share common goals, others are locked in competition, leading to a dynamic fusion of cooperation, competition, and geopolitical tension.
Kazakhstan: Moving Mountains in Transit
For over a decade, Kazakhstan has been striving to establish itself as a Eurasian transit hub, making it a top contender in the Central Asian transit game. About 85% of goods travelling between China and the EU pass through this versatile country. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (known as the Middle Corridor) plays a crucial role in this, with its significance amplified since 2022.
In 2024, the volume of goods transported along the TITR surged by 20%, reaching 3.3 million tonnes. Kazakhstan boasts additional corridors like the Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA), which similarly bypasses Russia. With an early start on infrastructure development compared to its neighbours, Kazakhstan has an advantageous position.
Turkmenistan: A Neutral Player Stepping Up
Isolated Turkmenistan rarely participated in Central Asian affairs prior to recent changes in its leadership. However, the new political climate has led the country to take a more active stance on international politics and establish transport corridors, particularly the Middle Corridor.
There have been discussions between Turkmenistan, the EU, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Romania about creating a new branch of the Middle Corridor. The country is also working on revitalizing the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, which stretches from Afghanistan to Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia. Turkmenistan now needs to address the gaps in its infrastructure and develop policies in the transit sector.
Uzbekistan: Feeling the Pulse of Change
Like other nations in the region, Uzbekistan is focusing on diversifying its transport corridors. Uzbekistan's reliance on routes such as the TITR is being addressed through the promotion of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, construction of which is anticipated to begin in 2025. This railway is designed to be connected to the new branch of the Middle Corridor that goes through Turkmenistan, effectively allowing goods to travel from China without entering Kazakhstan.
Uzbekistan is also seeking its own routes to Europe via Azerbaijan and Georgia, to Turkey through Iran, and to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan, while still relying on Turkmenistan's resources.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Rivals in the Race for Routes
The border-sharing countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are competitive in their approach to transit routes, both aiming to create a path from China to Uzbekistan through their territories. Kyrgyzstan is already working on building the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, which should help it avoid Kazakhstan as a transit country.
As Kyrgyzstan is heavily dependent on trade with Russia, it strives to find alternative routes through Uzbekistan and the Caspian Sea to diminish this dependency. Tajikistan, on the other hand, is trying to leverage its proximity to Afghanistan and establish connections with the Persian Gulf.
The Caucasus: Georges and Azerbaijan at the Helm
Azerbaijan and Georgia stand at the forefront of the race for transport routes, especially since they have ports on the Caspian Sea. This puts them at an advantage in the pursuit of the Middle Corridor, the North-South Corridor, TRACECA, the Caspian-Black Sea route, and the Lapis Lazuli Corridor. Together, they create a direct line from Central Asia to Europe.
Georgia's key advantages include its two major Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi and its shared border with Turkey, although Iran, which also borders Turkey, can divert some of the trade flow. Georgia's position can also be jeopardized if Azerbaijan and Armenia reach an agreement, as the progress in this department is slow, and the peace agreement remains unsigned.
Armenia, situated between Azerbaijan and its close ally Turkey, heavily relies on Georgia for trade with Russia.
Mongolia: A Giant in Limbo
Despite Mongolia's vast territory, its location between two powerful neighbors – China and Russia – significantly limits its transit capacity. The Steppe Corridor, connecting the only two neighboring countries of Mongolia, is less viable in the short term due to sanctions on Russia.
The coming decade will determine the dominant routes in Eurasian trade. If political stability prevails and infrastructure projects are completed, the Middle Corridor might challenge Russia's traditional transport networks, positioning Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia at the epicenter of global trade.
Solidarity Lanes, backed by EU support, aim to help Ukraine and other nations bypass Russian-controlled trade channels, further highlighting Europe's ongoing efforts to weaken Russia's grip on the region's commerce. The Central Asian nations, aware of the strategic importance of these alternative routes, are investing heavily in their development, aiming to capitalize on the opportunities they present and reshape regional trade dynamics.
- Central Asia
- Silk road
- Kazakhstan
- European Union
- Kazakhstan's strategic position on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, has been amplified since 2022, as Europe seeks to circumvent Russia and position itself for potential east-west trade flows.
- The European Union is supporting Solidarity Lanes, an initiative aimed at assisting Ukraine and other nations in bypassing Russian-controlled trade channels, which further underscores Europe's determination to reshape the regional trade dynamics and weaken Russia's grip on the area.
- The countries of the Silk Road, including Central Asia, are actively investing in infrastructure development, positioning themselves as key transit hubs amidst these global trade shifts, reminiscent of the historical Silk Road routes.
