The Resurgence of Islamic State – A Near-Silent Rebirth of the Caliphate
In the year 2023, the US-led coalition aided Iraqi forces in eliminating a top ISIS leader, Abdul Mahdi Muhsin al-Rifaie. However, the Islamic State, often referred to as the most deadly terrorist organization in the world, has shown a remarkable ability to adapt and persist.
Over the past year, ISIS and its affiliates have made their presence known through deadly attacks worldwide, leading some experts to label 2024 as the "Year of ISIS' resurgence." This resurgence is partly fuelled by global chaos, which terrorist groups like ISIS exploit to gain momentum.
In Iraq and Syria, ISIS continues to operate despite sustained counter-terrorism efforts. Despite significant military operations resulting in the death of 154 ISIS fighters and the detention of 521 more, ISIS leaders have sought refuge in rural areas, attempting to reorganize. The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria has created concerns about ISIS potentially regaining momentum there, as this power vacuum could provide ISIS with opportunities to rebuild its command structure and refill its ranks.
ISIS and its affiliates, including ISIS-K in Afghanistan and Pakistan, continue to pose a global threat. They inspire and enable terrorist activities worldwide, exploiting vulnerable populations and porous borders. ISIS-K remains active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, despite facing pressure from the Taliban, and these areas provide sanctuaries for planning attacks against regional partners and beyond.
The New Orleans attack, inspired by ISIS, and ongoing conflicts like the Gaza war, have heightened concerns about ISIS's influence and potential for future attacks. The situation in Syria and Iraq remains critical due to the ongoing conflicts and the potential for ISIS to exploit these environments, while the rise of lone-wolf operations and the inspirational impact of ISIS ideology continue to pose risks globally.
ISIS generates funds through various means, including kidnapping for ransom, extortion, looting, and illegal taxation. The group's core in Iraq and Syria still retains between $10 to $20 million in reserves, and increasingly uses cryptocurrency for transferring reserves and donations.
Recruitment for ISIS occurs both on the ground and online, with radicalization happening primarily online, at an accelerated pace, and increasingly involving minors and young adults. The online space requires significant attention, especially as the intensity of military operations against terrorists decreases.
Thousands of ISIS fighters held captive in Syria pose a potential threat to the region and beyond. The global fight against terrorism necessitates multilateral cooperation, intelligence sharing, and coordination of strategies to address these ongoing challenges and evolving dynamics.
In conclusion, while ISIS has faced significant military setbacks, its ability to adapt, inspire lone-wolf attacks, and exploit global instability maintains it as a major security concern worldwide. It is crucial for international efforts to remain vigilant and united in the face of this persistent threat.
- The ongoing resurgence of ISIS has led some experts to predict 2024 as the "Year of ISIS's resurgence," given their continued presence and deadly attacks worldwide.
- Concerns about ISIS potentially regaining momentum in Syria are heightened following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, as this power vacuum could provide opportunities for ISIS to rebuild its command structure and refill its ranks.
