The professional background of Nawrocki bears a resemblance to that of J.D. Vance.
In a shocking victory, a former bouncer and boxer becomes Poland's president - but he's also a historian with a Ph.D. and has expressed support for Ukraine. Expert Kai-Olaf Lang, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, predicts a tough president, stating that he has a different vision of Europe than the German coalition parties.
A Difficult President Awaits Germany
ntv.de - Mr. Lang, what can the federal government expect from Nawrocki as president?
Kai-Olaf Lang: Get ready for a challenging and self-assured Polish president with a different notion of Europe than the parties in the German coalition. As a historian with a Ph.D. and former head of the Institute for National Remembrance, questions of historical policy will likely take center stage in his interactions with Germany. He harbors a distrustful attitude towards Germany, accusing it of hegemonic ambitions in Europe and unreliability in security policy, despite the "turning point." Still, he maintains close ties to former U.S. President Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again Republicans.
Reparations Talks
Is the demand for reparations from Germany for World War II suffering warranted? Germany views the issue as settled legally.
The national conservatives, particularly the Law and Justice Party (PiS), which backed Nawrocki's campaign, have been pushing for this for years. However, the government under Donald Tusk attempts to downplay the issue. They expect a humanitarian gesture and other forms of real and symbolic politics to honor the suffering endured by Poland at the hands of Germans during World War II.
Nawrocki's Rise to Power
Why did Nawrocki win?
The election was, in part, a battle between two visions of Poland's future. Nawrocki desires a strong nation-state that remains in the EU but resists perceived encroachment from Brussels. He seeks a Poland aligned with the USA, particularly the USA under Donald Trump. He also emphasizes traditional conservative values.
Trzaskowski's Vision
What vision did his opponent represent?
Trzaskowski was more pro-European and progressive, serving as the mayor of Warsaw. The nation is divided over this issue; however, even in the first round, it was clear that right-wing and nationalist parties garnered more than half the votes.
The Appeal of the Outsider
What role did Nawrocki's outsider status play in the election?
The election was, on the other hand, also a contest of life stories. Trzaskowski is fluent in multiple languages, with a famous jazz musician as his father, and is known for socializing with intellectuals and artists.
A Story Sharing Similarities with Vice President JD Vance
Nawrocki mingled with football hooligans, boxed, and hails from a working-class family. Yet, he has climbed the ranks. He has a Ph.D. in history, led a museum, and served as the head of the Institute for National Remembrance. Despite a stretch, his resume bears a resemblance to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who rose from challenging circumstances. This appeal seems to have resonated with many. They viewed the controversies and questionable contacts attributed to Nawrocki as smear campaigns or youthful indiscretions.
The Plight of Donald Tusk's Government
What role did dissatisfaction with the government of Donald Tusk play in the election?
The election was also a repudiation of Donald Tusk's government. Many Poles are unhappy with Tusk's handling of the economy and corruption. Nawrocki had promised to tackle corruption and improve the economy. This message resonated with numerous voters.
A Reflection of Poland's Divisions
Was the election a referendum on the government of Tusk?
The election was also a vote against the government of Tusk. Many Poles are unhappy with the government's performance on the economy and corruption. Nawrocki vowed to combat corruption and improve the economy. This stance struck a chord with voters.
The oppositional PiS played a significant role in making this election a referendum on the Tusk government. The people are disgruntled with the Tusk government's coalition. What united them was simply the desire to displace the PiS. The PiS's success in this election was largely a referendum on Tusk. Trzaskowski could not distance himself from this. How could he? He is the deputy chairman of the Civic Platform, Tusk's party. The presidential elections, and especially the runoff, were a continuation of this long-standing rivalry between the two major camps of Polish politics - Donald Tusk and his adversary, Jarosław Kaczyński, chairman of the PiS - albeit without the two main figures. The duel, Trzaskowski vs. Nawrocki, ultimately ended in a close victory for the PiS.
The Authoritative Leader or Disruptor?
Will Poland now be governed more authoritatively? How can the new president influence the government?
Nawrocki cannot govern authoritatively himself but can act as a "spoiler" and disruptor. He will portray the government as submissive in foreign and European policy - towards the EU, towards Germany, if not directly as a puppet of Berlin. It is possible that Nawrocki will articulate his criticism even more forcefully than his predecessor Andrzej Duda. He can veto laws. This can only be overturned with a two-thirds majority. The Tusk government does not have such a large majority. The president can also submit laws to the Constitutional Court for review.
Delayed Government Work
This could delay government work and even impact diplomatic relations. For example, presidents must confirm ambassadors appointed by the government. Former President Andrzej Duda did not act on these appointments, resulting in many leadership positions remaining unfilled, including in Germany.
Foreign and European Policy
Formally, the president has little say in foreign and European policy, which is the government's domain. However, Nawrocki is expected to seek contacts with similarly minded European leaders, such as Giorgia Meloni, possibly also Viktor Orbán, despite eclectic views on Russian policy. He boasts excellent connections to Donald Trump and his circle. As president, he serves as a key contact person for Polish-U.S. bilateral relations.
Putin's Perspective on Nawrocki's Victory
Given Moscow's interest in seeing important EU countries divided and politically polarized internally, Nawrocki's presidency is likely to be viewed favorably. His skepticism of Germany and Europe, as well as his position on Ukraine support, will be seen as positive by Vladimir Putin.
Poland's Support for Ukraine
However, Nawrocki also plans to support Ukraine. Positioning himself more in line with Meloni than Orbán, Nawrocki might advocate for linking Ukraine aid to conditions. Tensions between the two countries persist on several fronts, historically and currently, such as Ukrainian nationalists' massacres of Poles during World War II and disputes surrounding the exhumation of bodies from mass graves. Price competition between Polish and Ukrainian grain farmers also poses a challenge. However, the Polish government has already addressed these issues. Nawrocki is likely to push for Poland to persistently pursue its demands.
Nawrocki's Relationship with Trump - Opportunity or Problem?
Nawrocki's alignment with the Polish consensus on security and Russia policy could strengthen Poland's ties with the U.S. While Nawrocki doesn't support Ukraine's NATO membership, he advocates for strengthening NATO's eastern flank and hindering Russian encroachment. Having more contacts with Trump would naturally benefit Poland by deterring any withdrawal of U.S. troops from Poland and bolstering the alliance in Europe. The question remains whether he can exert significant influence on Trump.
- The Commission, which has been consulted on the draft budget, might find it challenging to navigate the self-assured and unyielding approach of the new Polish president, given his distrustful attitude towards Germany and his desire for Poland to remain aligned with the USA, particularly the USA under Donald Trump.
- In general-news and political circles, the change in leadership in Poland has been widely noticed, with many analysts predicting a president who will be more vocal about his different vision of Europe and his perceived hegemonic ambitions from Germany, echoing the approach of former U.S. President Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again Republicans.
