The potential presence of a non-governmental entity casting a shadow over Syria's affairs?
After thirteen long years of civil war, the situation in Syria has taken a dramatic turn. In late 2024, a highly coordinated multi-front offensive led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and the Syrian National Army (SNA) resulted in a rapid takeover of a majority of Assadist-controlled territory.
The fall of Aleppo in just three days gave revolutionary forces momentum, sparking further offensives across the country. Southern rebels advanced in Daraa and Suwayda, HTS captured Hama, and other groups like the Syrian Free Army and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched offensives in Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor.
Several factors contributed to this swift collapse of Assadist control. The offensive was highly coordinated and multi-fronted, insurgents capitalized on the Assad regime’s military weaknesses exposed after years of conflict, and the fall of strategic cities like Hama cut off key defense lines protecting Assad’s power base around Damascus and the coastal Alawite heartland.
Key cities fell rapidly—Homs and Damascus reportedly fell by early December—and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, effectively ending his control. This collapse was so significant it was described as a “game-changer” signalling that Assad's military had become a mere shell of its former capacity.
Internal fractures such as defections by tribal groups and local militias, the withdrawal of government forces from certain provinces following new agreements, and subsequent tribal conflicts further weakened Assadist hold on territory in southern Syria. By March 2025, revolutionary factions had consolidated power and integrated into new central government institutions, marking a formal end to Assadist rule.
The current conflict in Syria has ended, but the situation allows for many possible scenarios. Human rights may continue to be subjected to geostrategic interests. In the north, Ankara-backed rebel groups control two strips of territory adjoining the Turkish border. The US has 900 military personnel in Syria to ensure stability in the east and prevent the establishment of jihadist hotspots.
In the south, different rebel groups control regions and are reportedly taking control of major cities such as Deraa. Israel could strengthen its control in southern Syria due to the current situation, while Turkey may seek to confront the Kurds, potentially gaining de facto control of territories where it has supported rebels.
Among the rebels who have reached Damascus, there is a diverse mix of groups, ranging from those opposed to the al-Assad regime for political and humanitarian reasons to groups considered terrorist organizations by the US, UK, and others. The Kurdish militias are focused on autonomy for their government in northern and eastern Syria, controlling the important city of al-Raqa.
Syria has a long historical tradition of the Orthodox Church of Antioch, one of the oldest Christian denominations in the Middle East. By 2019, the international coalition, Syrian Democratic Forces rebels, and Kurds had defeated all the positions of the self-proclaimed Islamic State on Syrian territory. Hezbollah had not yet been attacked by Israel four years ago, and Iran had not yet been worn down by war or mass protests.
As the dust settles, it remains unclear how the diversity among these rebel groups will coexist now that the common goal (overthrowing al-Assad) has disappeared. The future of Syria remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the end of the conflict marks a significant turning point in the region's history.
Politics and general news report on the significant turning point in the region's history as the ongoing war-and-conflicts in Syria culminate in the fall of key cities, leading to the collapse of Assadist control. The aftermath of the conflict leaves a diverse mix of rebel groups competing for power and territory, raising geostrategic concerns about human rights, territorial control, and potential escalation of conflicts between rebel factions, Israel, and Turkey.
