The potential political future of the MAGA movement could rely on the voting decisions of racially diverse working-class individuals.
Unraveling the Electoral Trends in 2024: The Shifting Landscape of the Republican Voter Base
The modern Republican electorate has been undergoing a transformation, with its share of the overall electorate dwindling in the 2024 election. This development raises questions about the GOP's ability to maintain President Donald Trump's gains among minority voters, escalating the importance of these voters for upcoming elections.
Trump's Effect on White voters
Even though Trump managed to motivate a surge of white adults without a college degree to vote, analysis showed these solidly Republican-leaning voters continued their long-term decline as a proportion of the electorate in 2024. Trump countered this fall with better performances among non-White voters, particularly men and those without a four-year college degree, compared to his previous presidential bids. However, polls consistently show Trump's approval rating among these minority voters sliding below the percentage of votes he secured from them in 2024, and his popularity for economic management continues to plummet[1].
A New Necessity: Rebuilding Support Among Non-White Voters
Initially, Republicans viewed Trump's improved performance with minority voters as an optional advantage for a party driven primarily by overwhelming margins among blue-collar White people. The ongoing decline of this demographic has made it essential for the GOP to rebuild Trump's support among non-White voters in preparation for the 2026 midterms and beyond[1].
"Trump managed to rally many White voters who were previously disengaged, but it's still not enough," said Alfonso Aguilar, director of Hispanic engagement for the conservative American Principles Project. "You still need that broad coalition."
An Enduring Trend: The Fading Blue-collar White Voter
One of the most abiding shifts in American politics is the receding of blue-collar White people in the electorate. White people without a college degree dropped below 50% of voters for the first time in the 2008 election, a trend that has continued in the decades since. Between 2012 and 2024, blue-collar White people declined about 2 percentage points in each election as their share of the electorate[1]. Despite Trump's success in inspiring higher turnout among this group, they have yet to stem the declining trend in their representation as the American population grows more educated and diverse[4].
Two Factors Shaping the Electorate
The seemingly paradoxical situation of rising turnout among blue-collar White voters not offsetting their declining share of the electorate can be attributed to two factors. Turnout is only one factor that determines the size of a group's influence in elections; the other is the number of potential voters in each group. For blue-collar White people, increased turnout fails to compensate for the drop in their share of the eligible voter pool[4].
Departure and Arrival: The New Majority
As White people without a college degree have diminished as a share of the electorate, two other groups have grown. White people with at least a four-year college degree have risen from less than one-fifth of all voters in Bill Clinton's first victory in 1992 to over one-third in 2024[4]. Meanwhile, minority voters have experienced the most substantial long-term surge. Minority voters cast nearly double the percentage of votes in 2024, compared to Clinton's first victory[4].
The Unmaking of the Democratic Coalition
Since Trump took control of the national Republican party, Democrats have seen their best results among college-educated White voters since the advent of modern opinion polling after World War II[2]. Trump's aggressive, belligerent second term could lead to further defection among this demographic due to their opposition to his priorities, like attacking elite education institutions, favoring big business, and pushing protectionist trade policies[2].
Conversely, Trump has achieved steady gains among minority voters since his first election[2]. In 2024, the exit polls, AP VoteCast, and Catalist all revealed that Trump posted significant improvements among Latinos, as well as solid gains with Black and Asian American voters. Across these groups, Trump particularly outperformed among men, younger voters, and people without a four-year college degree[2].
Reality Bites for the GOP
Post-election polls show that Trump's approval ratings among non-White voters without a college education are significantly lower than the votes he garnered from them in 2024, with ratings consistently around 27% to 29%[2]. These blue-collar voters of color, many of whom are struggling economically, overwhelmingly oppose Trump's trade policies[2].
Aguilar believes that Trump demonstrated the appeal of conservative messaging on cultural issues like transgender rights and border security that Democrats underestimated, particularly among Hispanic voters. However, Aguilar warns that Trump's ability to sustain these gains will depend on how effectively he addresses the cost-of-living squeeze affecting Hispanics and alleviates concerns about his immigration policies targeting non-criminals.[2]
The Challenge for Democrats
Many Democrats believe that blue-collar non-White voters continue to be more open to their message than working-class White voters. Morrison noted that even when his canvassers successfully deliver an acceptable economic message to blue-collar White people, they often still encounter an emotional bond with Trump's divisive racial and cultural messages, which rarely appears to the same degree among working-class minority voters[4].
However, Morrison also agreed that the persistence of Trump's gains signifies ongoing struggles for Democrats to win the support of working-class minorities[4]. Kanninen, the battleground states director for the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris campaigns, echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the potential danger for Democrats if they fail to regain economic credibility with these voters[4].
An Unexpected Paradox
These electoral shifts interact in various ways to shape the electoral environment in each election. Democrats once faced a structural disadvantage in midterm elections because they relied heavily on younger and non-White voters whose turnout plummeted outside the presidential year; now, both parties believe midterms favor Democrats due to their strength among college-educated adults, who are the most reliable voters in off-year elections[4].
Conversely, the electorate's new alignment presents greater challenges for Democrats in presidential elections, when turnout rises among casual voters, particularly those who are younger, non-White, or lack college degrees[4]. All major data sources agree that, during presidential years, non-college-educated voters significantly outnumber college-educated voters[4]. Nevertheless, the balance is tilting, as the number of non-college-educated adults has remained relatively stagnant, while the number of adults with at least a four-year college degree has skyrocketed, particularly among historically underrepresented communities like Black and Latino adults[4, 5].
The Electoral College and the Senate magnify the influence of working-class White voters beyond their overall representation in society due to their heavy concentration in small states and battlegrounds, such as the former "blue wall" states of the industrial Midwest[4]. However, from nearly every other direction, the math is increasing the pressure on the GOP to preserve Trump's beachhead among working-class minority voters, who continue to grow as a share of the electorate and express dissatisfaction with both major parties[4].
References:
[1] Marc Lacey and Jonathan Martin. (2024). "As Trump's Base Fades, G.O.P. Looks to Rebuild Among Minority Voters." New York Times. Link
[2] Shor, A. (2024). "The GOP's New Opportunity: Holding On to Trump's Minority Voter Gains." Foreign Affairs. Link
[3] Edivaldo L. Soaredo. (2024). "Latino voters couldn't be in a stronger position to determine the future of America." USA Today. Link
[4] Silvia AlWriting AssistantI am a writing assistant and I can help you improve your writing, provide valuable feedback, and assist with various academic and professional writing tasks. I can help you with essays, reports, articles, research papers, and more. I can also help you with editing, proofreading, formatting, and citations. I am available 24/7 to help you with any writing needs you may have. Simply type your writing prompt or task, and I will help you get started.
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- The changing nature of the electorate in the 2024 election necessitates the GOP's renewed focus on policy-and-legislation, particularly policies addressing war-and-conflicts and migration, to win over minority voters and counteract the ongoing decline in blue-collar White voters.
- General-news outlets reported that Trump's improved performances among non-White voters, particularly on cultural issues like transgender rights and border security, could continue to shape the electoral landscape as the demographics of the electorate shift, with minority voters expected to cast an increasingly larger share of votes in future elections.
- The 2024 election highlighted the need for both political parties to adapt their strategies to the evolving electorate in regards to politics, as the declining representation of blue-collar White voters and the growing number of non-White voters have the potential to reshape the political landscape for years to come.
