"The party 'Latvia First' takes the lead in the latest election polls for the first time"
In the lead-up to the June 2025 municipal elections, a notable shift in political allegiances has emerged, with the Latvia First (Latvija Pirmā, LPV) party gaining significant popularity. This surge in support, particularly in Riga where the party secured 18.1% of the vote, marks a significant milestone for LPV as it took the front position in party polls for the first time before the elections [1][2][3].
Earlier in the year, LPV was not among the leading parties in political popularity polls, which were dominated by established parties such as the National Alliance throughout 2024 and early 2025 [3]. However, by April 2025, LPV reached front-runner status in some polls for the first time, reflecting strong voter shifts ahead of the municipal elections [3].
This electoral success, however, did not translate into a seat in the governing coalition in Riga City Council. Instead, the coalition formed among The Progressives, the National Alliance, New Unity, and the United List, controlling 34 of 60 seats [1][2]. The party’s leader challenged the election results legally, but the courts rejected these claims as unfounded [1].
The rise of LPV reflects broader political shifts in Latvia, influenced by economic and regional security concerns, including the war in Ukraine and deteriorating public trust in government (64 percent distrust as of mid-2025 compared to 56 percent a year earlier) [2]. The municipal election outcome signals a possible thematic realignment in Latvian politics toward populist and right-wing parties, potentially gaining further momentum ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections [2].
Meanwhile, the National Alliance, which has been the frontrunner for much of the year, has experienced the largest drop in ratings, slipping to second position with a decrease of 1.8% [4]. For Stability! and the Progressives have also seen a drop in support, with the former falling to 4.1% and the latter dropping by more than one percent, from 5.5% in January to 4.4% now [4].
The Greens and Farmers' Union and the United List are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in the current polls, with the Greens and Farmers' Union slightly decreasing its support to 5.3% [4]. The current polls do not show any new parties breaking the 3% support threshold [4].
Interestingly, more than 33% of those surveyed are undecided about their vote in the upcoming municipal elections, with the electorate remaining largely undecided or uninterested [5]. This apathy towards the elections has resulted in nearly half of all potential voters being either undecided or non-participating [5].
In conclusion, the municipal elections in Latvia are shaping up to be a significant test of the country's political landscape, with the rise of the populist Latvia First party challenging the status quo. The outcome of these elections could potentially foreshadow a shift in Latvian politics towards more populist and right-wing parties ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections.
References: [1] BBC News (2025). Latvia's Riga election: Populist party wins votes but no power. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57887308 [2] The Guardian (2025). Latvia's Riga election: Populist party gains votes but fails to form coalition. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/08/latvia-riga-election-populist-party-gains-votes-but-fails-to-form-coalition [3] Providus Public Policy Centre (2025). Latvia First's Rise in Popularity: A Shift in Latvian Politics? [online] Available at: https://www.providus.lv/en/publications/latvias-first-rise-in-popularity-a-shift-in-latvian-politics [4] Delfi (2025). Latvia First leads in nationwide municipal election polls. [online] Available at: https://www.delfi.lv/news/politics/latvia-first-leads-in-nationwide-municipal-election-polls.d?id=91894664 [5] Baltic Times (2025). Half of Latvia's potential voters undecided or non-participating in municipal elections. [online] Available at: https://www.baltictimes.com/half-of-latvia-s-potential-voters-undecided-or-non-participating-in-municipal-elections/
- In the municipal elections of 2025, the Latvia First (Latvija Pirmā, LPV) party, displaying a notable shift in political allegiances, gained significant popularity, challenging the traditional political landscape in Latvia.
- Although LPV secured a strong vote in Riga, they did not manage to secure a seat in the governing coalition in Riga City Council, with the coalition instead formed by The Progressives, the National Alliance, New Unity, and the United List.
- The municipal elections showcased a potential realignment in Latvian politics towards populist and right-wing parties, with the rise of LPV likely to gain further momentum ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections.
- Significantly, the National Alliance, which was a frontrunner for much of the year, experienced a marked drop in ratings, slipping to second position in the elections, indicating a shift in political sentiment among the Latvian electorate.
