The Major Barrier for Unbiased and Democratic Voting in Venezuela is Influence from the United States
In all the noise about "free and fair elections" in Venezuela from the US government and its mouthpiece media, they conveniently ignore the elephant in the room: the sanctions designed to make life so miserable that the people will cave to Washington's plan for regime change.
As Foreign Policy puts it, "Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro values his political survival above his country’s economic well-being." Translated from Washington-speak, the US government is essentially blackmailing the Venezuelan electorate with the looming threat of continuing unilateral coercive measures unless they vote against Maduro in the presidential election on July 28.
The New York Times reports that a Maduro win will only intensify poverty, conveniently omitting that the primary cause will be the tightening of US sanctions. Typical of such coverage, the article blames Maduro for the "dire" economic situation, but it doesn't mention US sanctions until the 25th paragraph.
This outside electoral meddling through sanctions far surpasses the supposed "Russiagate" interference in the 2016 US presidential election. Washington has no qualms about making it clear that it intends to punish the Venezuelan people for choosing a government not to its liking, and it calls this bullying "democracy promotion."
Hybrid War on Venezuela
As documented by Venezuelanalysis, US sanctions against Venezuela are a form of war, albeit one without bombs. These measures are collectively punishing the Venezuelan people and are illegal under international law. The over 930 US sanctions are designed to crash the Venezuelan economy and prevent any recovery. Initiated by President Obama, they were intensified by President Trump, targeting Venezuela's vital oil industry.
The US continued other "hybrid warfare" measures, including recognizing Juan Guaidó as the self-proclaimed "interim president" of Venezuela in 2019. The then-35-year-old far-right US asset had never run for national office and was unknown to over 80% of the population. Nevertheless, some fifty US allies initially recognized his government.
Coup attempts are ongoing, according to the Venezuelan government, with US official policy being "plausible deniability."
Venezuela Stands Its Ground
Against all odds and most predictions, President Maduro has managed to turn the Venezuelan ship of state around amid such unfavorable winds. By the end of 2023, Venezuela had recorded 11 quarters of consecutive growth after years of economic contraction. GDP growth during the first four months of 2024 exceeded forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is projected to be 4% for the year, compared to IMF figures for the US at 2.7% and China at 4.6%.
Today, only the US, Israel, and a handful of other Washington vassals still do not recognize the democratically elected government of Venezuela. Even the US-backed opposition has itself renounced the Guaidó presidency.
Venezuela has strengthened ties with China, Russia, and Iran, intensifying hostility by the US. Meanwhile, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the first leftist in the entire history of Colombia, replaced the right-wing Iván Duque. The following year, the friendly Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva replaced the hostile government of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil on Venezuela's southern border.
Progressive regional governments such as Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Mexico have continued to support Venezuela. This, in turn, has only intensified hostility by the US.
Lessons from the 1990 Nicaraguan Election
Conditions in Venezuela today, in the run-up to the July presidential election, bear some parallels to a similar situation in Nicaragua in 1990. In 1979, the Sandinistas overthrew the US-backed Somoza dictatorship in Nicaragua. By the 1990 presidential election, polls looked favorable for the reelection of the FSLN party's Daniel Ortega.
Everyone, including the US president, who was bent on overthrowing the Nicaraguan Revolution, anticipated a Sandinista victory. But the vote was unfavorable, resulting in seventeen years of neoliberal regression.
The US state and its stenographers in the press made it abundantly clear that the Nicaraguans had best vote the "right way" or the US-sponsored contra war would continue. The contras were mercenaries recruited largely from Somoza's former army who were waging an armed terror campaign against the population. In addition, Nicaragua was under US economic sanctions and suffering from hyperinflation. The CIA alone poured in $28-30 million into the opposition parties and NGOs in the 1990 election. The US "purchased" the 1990 Nicaragua elections.
Prospects for the Venezuelan Presidential Election
While Venezuela is not under siege by US-paid mercenaries, it is subject to Washington's hybrid war of coercive economic measures, funding of opposition forces, international diplomatic belligerence, and covert actions.
An assessment in February by the US intelligence community found Maduro "is unlikely to lose the 2024 presidential election." A May 3 Encuesta Nacional Ideadatos opinion poll reported a 52.7% preference for Maduro. Other polls give the lead to opposition candidate Edmundo González with the Unitary Platform, who allegedly worked with the CIA.
Within the Chavista core, there is a certain level of weariness due to ongoing issues of inadequate healthcare delivery, salaries and pensions that have not kept pace with inflation, erratic electric power, incompletely addressed corruption, and dysfunctional police and judicial services, all of which disproportionately impact the Chavista base of poor and working people. However, how this will translate on July 28 is uncertain.
The propaganda campaign by the US state and its stenographers in the press to delegitimize the Venezuelan election process is ramping up. For example, the US "newspaper of record" reports that "the last competitive election was held in 2013." But the presidential term is six years, and the US literally ordered the opposition not to run in 2018. The leading opposition candidate at the time, Henri Falcón, was threatened with sanctions when he chose to ignore Washington’s demand.
The very fact that any of the US-backed opposition is contesting in the upcoming election rather than boycotting indicates that they are no longer relying on an extra-parliamentary overthrow of the government. This itself represents a significant victory for the Chavistas.
Roger Harris is on the board of the Task Force on the Americas, a 32-year-old anti-imperialist human rights organization.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.
Source: Counterpunch.
- The US government's coercive measures, as documented by Venezuelanalysis, are part of a 'hybrid war' against Venezuela, targeted at collectively punishing its people and illegally crashing the economy.
- In the run-up to the 2023 Venezuelan presidential election, the US propagates a propaganda campaign aimed at delegitimizing the election process, such as proclaiming the last 'competitive' election was held in 2013, despite the presidential term being six years, and ordering the opposition not to run in 2018, as reported by Roger Harris of the Task Force on the Americas.
- In 1990, the US state and press made it clear to the Nicaraguan electorate that they should vote in line with US interests or face continuation of the US-sponsored contra war and economic sanctions, resulting in an unfavorable vote and seventeen years of neoliberal regression.
- Despite the ongoing challenges and weariness within the Chavista base, the fact that US-backed opposition is contesting the 2023 Venezuelan presidential election instead of boycotting represents a significant victory for the Chavistas and suggests a shift away from extra-parliamentary overthrow attempts.
