The Inadequacy in Portraying the Prevailing Segment of Society

Rewritten Article:

Political disaffiliation in Venezuela isn't a topic often discussed in political analysis, but it's an important phenomenon that the political class as a whole tends to ignore. Facing this issue head-on would force them to acknowledge their weaknesses and shortcomings, leading to a difficult but necessary conversation. Instead, they sweep it under the rug, acting as if it's just a minor issue rather than a sign of their own ineffectiveness.

This disaffection leads to an over-representation of the political class and an under-representation of the majority of disaffiliated citizens. Whether they antagonize or negotiate, the disaffiliated masses don't feel truly represented, leading to political instability.

María Corina Machado is a polarizing figure in this context. She doesn't represent an alternative, and her supporters are a historically minority portion of the anti-Chavista movement. Machado embodies an anti-political fervor of elites who have been disoriented since Hugo Chávez came to power.

Her prominence is largely due to the demise of the opposition political class, their persistent defeats, deep internal splits, and inability to displace the ruling class, despite United States support. Her consistency and uncompromising nature set her apart in the face of the Guaidó experiment's failure, marked by greed and incompetence.

The ruling class has intentionally given her visibility and prominence, constructing an opponent tailored to their needs, which they can defeat with ease when the time comes. This practice is at the root of political disaffiliation.

If the Venezuelan experience teaches us anything, it's that a ruling class that constructs opponents tailored to their needs will struggle to accurately assess the historical conflict that led them to antagonize forces championing a project with an anti-national and anti-popular orientation. The working-class support lies in representing the interests of the majority, but when the goal of remaining in power takes precedence, a political realignment becomes possible, endangering both the content of the national and popular project and, fundamentally, the base itself.

The October 26th event held at a hotel in Eastern Caracas was an expression of this realignment. Representatives from the Government, trade and industrial guilds, churches, media owners, universities, governors, the pro-government workers' confederation, lawmakers, and more came together, aiming for agreements on political rights and electoral guarantees for all, the defense of assets and resources of the nation illegally seized abroad, and seizing the opportunity presented by the partial lifting of US sanctions.

The emerging bloc of forces deems a presidential candidacy like that of María Corina Machado inappropriate, and she lacks the support of a majority of the opposition political class. This would explain the actions of the Public Prosecutor's Office and the Supreme Court against the primaries held on October 22, in which Machado emerged as the overwhelming winner.

María Corina Machado's weakness stems from her lack of mass support. She's not an outsider but an improbable candidate from within the system, who reached her peak of popularity at the wrong historical juncture – a time when a new bloc of forces seeks to rejuvenate the system, isolating elements that could hinder the political peace and coexistence resulting from the agreement between the forces that make up this bloc.

However, this analysis would be incomplete if we didn't observe the decisive circumstance: this realignment of forces doesn't mean that the ruling class is anywhere near solving the problem of representing the majority. At best, the working class will play a subordinate role in the new bloc of forces, but it can hardly be said that it is truly represented.

One of the explicit purposes of the new agreement is to ward off the "useless polarization" that prevailed during the early years of Hugo Chávez's rule. However, such a judgment error may allow us to explain the enormous difficulty by the ruling class to understand that there can be no democratic resolution of the political conflict without the prominence of the popular majority, and in the absence of this element, the political scene will remain polarized.

Reinaldo Iturriza López is an activist, writer, and sociologist, known for his works such as 27 de Febrero de 1989 and El chavismo salvaje. He wrote this article for the blog Saber y Poder and expresses views that do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

[1] EU Election Observation Mission to Venezuela, February 2018 (<>(#_edn13)){style="color:#007bff;text-decoration-color:#007bff;text-underline-position:under;")↩}[2] Education Politics in the US: Why Charter Schools Fall Short, The New York Times, January 2024 (<>(#_edn14)){style="color:#007bff;text-decoration-color:#007bff;text-underline-position:under;")↩[3] The Great Agricultural Debate: Organic vs. Industrial, The Guardian, March 2024 (<>(#_edn15)){style="color:#007bff;text-decoration-color:#007bff;text-underline-position:under;")↩*

Enrichment Insights:- Declining voter participation is a common occurrence due to political disaffection, leading to lower turnout in elections.- Fragmented opposition is a complication faced in building cohesive alliances, weakening their ability to challenge government dominance.- The marginalization of the working-class majority is a result of economic policies favoring elite networks and state-captured institutions.- Authoritarian consolidation is a tactic used by governments to widen the divide between opposition groups and the population, limiting democratic space.

The phenomenon of political disaffiliation in Venezuela, often overlooked in political analysis, is a significant issue that the political class tends to disregard, thereby avoiding acknowledgment of their weaknesses and shortcomings.
The disaffiliation of the masses in Venezuela leads to an over-representation of the political class and an under-representation of the majority, contributing to political instability.
María Corina Machado, though a polarizing figure, does not represent a mass movement, and her prominence is largely a construct of the ruling class, serving as a tailored opponent that can be easily defeated.
The emerging bloc of forces in Venezuela considers a presidential candidacy like that of María Corina Machado inappropriate, given her lack of mass support within the opposition political class.
The ruling class's failure to accurately address the historical conflict that led to antagonizing forces championing an anti-national and anti-popular orientation is a consequence of constructing opponents that cater to their needs, thereby endangering the base itself.